Longford Energy Inc V.LFD

BUYOUT $ 200 MILLION ($ 1/SHARE)

[taxdemicco]

Hello Everyone:

One cannot compare VST to LFD.  One must compare VST to WZR.   VST is a wildcat operation, with only a 17% chance of success and is not de-risked.    WZR was drilled in the past, has been de-risked and flowed 5,000 bpd of oil 41 API when they did not have the type of equipment that exists today.  The flow rate will be that much higher.    Resource estimates are that this property may contain 400 million barrels of oil.   Once drilled it means $ 40 billion in revenue using the $ 100 barrel per oil.   Costs of drilling is about $ 15 per barrel of oil hence there is a profit margin of $ 85 per barrel.  Why do you think there is so much negotiating between Kurds and Iraq on the PSC contracts, cause they are huge.   LFD owns 40% of this PSC contract meaning that it will generate $ 16 billion in revenue over its lifetime, with a profit of $ 85 per barrel.   With those types of numbers and shallow drilling that is required, one can expect that Genel will easily pay $ 200 million for this share.   Genel knows that it cannot fool around since other parties are interested Exxon, Sinopec, Chevron and other majors.   What is $ 200 million to Exxon, it is pocket change for this, they would have closed this deal in a heartbeat.   The insiders have loaded up on LFD, Soros and friends have loaded up on LFD.   They did so knowing that it was going to be bought out.   The experience with VST has taught them that it is better for something with deep pockets and experience to drill this.   LFD is playing hardball trying to get Genel to pay true fair market value for this PSC share.  I am certain Soros is consulted to as negotiator.  Billionaires hang around together so Soros speaking to Rothschild in getting a deal done, will result in a deal.  Deal should be annnounced either before or after close is my hunch!!!! And per the reporter.

JMHO

[HHdoc]

If you want to be taken seriously, please use numbers which are consistent with terms of the psc. Genel, as a signator, knows full well that the kurds are keeping between 85% and 90% of the profit oil. This makes your proposed purchase price based  on $85/bbl ridiculous. If you want to enter a serious discussion, get the numbers right. You can bet that Genel will. There is no way they will

[nicky1969]

Hey HDOC......where are u getting this 85-90% of profit given to the KRG.  I saw a 40% in the MDA.  You may be correct but i can not find your huge numbers !!

[kdcalgary74]

These PSC are complex. KRG takes 10% as royalty. Of the 90%, contractor gets 45% to cover costs. The remaining 55% of the 90% is considered profit oil. Of that, the KRG retains a low of 65% until costs are recovered and then slides up usually till twice the costs are recoverd up to 84%. This leaves 35% prior to payout of costs sliding down to 16% to the contractor group. Longford gets 40% of this

[HHdoc]

Nicky; KDcalgary has very ably explained how these pscs work and that ultimately lfd would get a 3.84% share of the production. I would only clarify from his post that the 3.84% is total share not a share of profit oil. With decent production, costs are quickly recovered so during most of the production the company's share as cost oil is zero and what they get is from the sliding scale profit