In-the-system VS Discovery At this very point in time, I would evaluate the story as a success in establishing a base case scenario of finding the Homestake-style system. Will the offset holes that they just drilled and are continuing to drill (11B and on-words) produce a Discovery – odds (50-75%) are greater that they will than not, in my opinion. Each wedge hole undercutting the previous one looks better and better!
Some definitions:
Discovery -> 8-10g/t (or more) over 5-10m (or more)
In-the-system -> 5-6g/t over 4-5m
It's anyone's guess how the market would respond in the very short-term (days) to the base-case scenario of finding the system at a time when the sentiment in the junior sector is at an all-time low. But the finding would be positive in the eyes of the majors and long-term holders, and the downside risk of this play being highly mitigated. We are not at Target 2 yet.
In short, odds of a big upside potential in the stock price are very good while the downside risks of owning the stock are being reduced - good place to be in for existing or new investors.
Let's keep our fingers crossed for a discovery and before PDAC!!