The OFFER is Still Active but WHEN ?Lets Examine the pattern of buying and selling by Insiders since June 2020
NAME Shares June 2020 Shares Sept 28/20 Transaction dates
Baldock 1,382,250 1,014, 250 Before July 30, Sept 18-25
Zhai 720,000 1,720,700 Before June 2020
Harum 2,630,400 3,830,400 June 10/20 Reported Sept 22
Dickson nil 400,000 Sept 18 202
Kitney nil 500,000 Sept 18 2020
The Transaction LOI took place on July 30 2020 and was disclosed on Sept 15 2020 in the Annual Report.
There was no buying or selling during this period for obvioius reasons of the blackout.
Zhai added 1 m shares in early 2020.
Harum bought 1.2 m shares on June 10 2020 which was only reported on Sept 22 2020
Both Dickson and Kitney bought their shares right after public disclousure of the trasnaction.
Baldock was selling both before and after July 30 and Sept 15.
My conclusions
1... Preliminary discussions of .the transaction arrangement began shortly before June 10
2...Baldock facilitated the pricing by selling some of his shares both in June and after Sept 15.
3...Conversion of RSUs has been taken as shares instead of cash by Harum, Dickson and Kitney
4...for the latter two, this is their first holdings of common shares
5. .for Harum, this is the first addition of shares since 2007….Why Add Common Shares Now ?
1.......the additional votes would increase votes FOR
2…....the transaction is real and will be executed.
Re #1, that could be the reason, but Baldock has been selling at the same time, reducing this rationale. Further, the net added shares are miniscule in relation to total vote potential.
Re#2, we know that the transaction was still active on Sept 15, when its public disclosure was made acknowledged in the Annua Report of that Date
Any cancellation since then would have to have been immidiately publicly announced.
My conclusion is that we have an active and valid takeover offer or substantial asset sale that will be announced concurrent with or before the AGM.
Concurrent announcement does not make sense, as voting ends on Oct 26
By then , massive numbers of shares by disenchanted shareholders will have already voted WITHOLD.
The new Closely drilled program extending north and south of the first closely drilled area of Peranghi began in May 2020.
Concurrent with this, some mining of the new areas has taken place.
This drilling program, by my estimation, was completed by early August.
Assays of those would require several months ( sent to Australia ), so they may be due soon.
Mining results/grades would be known shortly after processing at the mill , but these were probably stockpiled and milled only after the mill is cleaned of residual contamination by non Peranghi ore.
It will be an interesting time leading up to the AGM.
Based on the transaction fee, this is a major transaction ( full Takeover ) if normal breakup fee rates hold.
It would seem, from advancing the timing of the AGM, it was expected that this deal would be closed in time for the advanced AGM .
It looks like Robbie Burns may have intervened, as he often does on affairs of men.
So, dont be surprised to see a Halt before Oct 26.