Nagambie Resources Ltd V.NAG

RE: RE: Company valuation

[Durkastan]

As the valuations you came up with...
The only thing to add is that it looks more like pure accounting. Two more factors that will be in play are future growth potential (i.e. the embedded option of having mine #4, #5, etc starting production over the next few years) and the sentiment.

With all due respect... they are not pure accounting. :) This is how company valuation is done. In fact, the valuation exercise in my post attempted to remove the accounting numbers, if there were any (depreciation, other non-cash charges). The whole exercise was to provide a hard cash flow valuation using info we currently know or think we know.

You're right about the future growth potential. That's where a P/NAV multiple comes in. The valuation in my post was a simple NAV, or a 1.0 P/NAV multiple. If you think that there is another 30% growth potential using the same assumptions, then you'd assign a 1.3 x P/NAV multiple. This is where the "art" in valuation comes in, as opposed to the "science" of hard numbers.

If you think that mine #4 and mine #5 are guaranteed to happen and that you can come up with numbers for their tonnage, costs, etc, then you could add them to the model. Personally, I feel that I can't give management credit for anything beyond the very next mine... too much uncertainty.

Sentiment affects trading (PRICE) but not VALUE.