Current valuation
So the market cap right now at these share prices is about 85.7M USD. After the incoming converted eclipse shares are added the share price translates to a market cap of about 85.7 * 100 / 0.71 = ~120M USD. I guess a little bit more than that with the oversubscription. Anyway, with 19M USD in cash that translates to a valuation of about 100M USD for the combined moss & hercules assets. Eclipse was valued around 25M-ish USD when the announcement was done. So assuming a constant valuation there the moss mine is now valued at 75-ish M USD.
The earnings for the quarter ending september landed at 12M USD. For a single quarter. And production volume is still going up (last quarter was transitioning + lower grade) and cost is going down. Gold has come down quite a bit as well of course, but the cost reduction measures are going to be partly compensating given that we haven't seen the full effects of the powerline, crush size increase or the west pit commissioning yet. Further upcoming stimuli and eventually resulting onset of inflation is expected to be positive for gold as well.
Next to that the resource is expected to increase significantly in the near term after the drill campaign at Moss. So that's a clear catalyst upcoming for a re-valuation. And that's not mentioning potentially good hercules drill results that are also inbound.
It seems like sentiment on the merger is driving things down here more than anything.
I accumulated today, even if i'm already overweight.