Nickel 28 has uploaded the documents for the quarterly financial statements as of October 31, 2022 on SEDAR: Financial Statements and MD&A.
Abstract: Nickel 28 is On Track to become a cash cow in 2 to 3 years with presumably "nice" dividend yield.
Impact of September 2022 earthquake is modest. 1 month reduction output; previously assumed at least 2 months:
"On September 11, 2022, Papua New Guinea experienced a 7.6 magnitude earthquake 150km south of Madang. Emergency protocols were initiated at the Ramu Mine and it was determined that no injuries to personnel occurred. MCC reduced throughput at Ramu's refinery for approximately one month while specialists were engaged to ensure integrity of all key equipment before returning to full production."
Now to the Cash USD as of 10/31/2022
- Cash and cash equivalents : 3.54m$
- Amounts receivable and other assets: 2.5m$
- This 2.5m$ includes the FCF of 1.7m$ for the 1st HY. as of 1/7/2022. The amount received by NKL as of Nov 3, 2022.
- Effective cash therefore around 5m$.
The difficulty in estimating the investment case of Nickel 28 is the different time levels of the business case. Nicely demonstrated here: Production data including cash costs for H1 2022 are reported after about one month. With approximate calculations one can then roughly estimate the profitability. The FCF is available as of July 1, 2022. Only the invoice needs to be audited. The amount will then appear in the quarterly financial statements as of 31.10.2022. And effectively it will then flow (1.7m$) into the account at the beginning of November.
But as always, there is not only light; there is also shadow. And a very big shadow! In the last days the former CEO Justin Cochrane and the Chairman of BoD Anthony Milewski have granted each other 1'600'000 (total dilution 3.2m) shares in the form of (Rights Restricted Share Units RSU). Of course, these "rewards" are in line with Company regulations. As a retail investor there is no other choice than: Take it or leave it.
But at least the responsible "managers" should know that also small investors can think and classify facts: NKL buys shares on the market and "burns" cash to do so. At the same time, the responsible persons (very) generously allow themselves RSU. Simplified result: Less cash in the cash box and the same amount or more shares! Roughly speaking: They grab the cash. Personally, I prefer a dividend.
urai58
P.S. I remain invested and we can be very happy with the share price performance considering the other disasters. So also thanks to Anthony and Justin for discovering this investment case!
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)