Who's Going To Blink First! Orko believes they will be bought out before the FS and a final decision on the mine. Makes you think whether PAAS has any intention of finishing the FS before they take OK out. OK share price goes up when PAAS confirms they are building the mine. It is totally in PAAS's interest to take out OK before the FS. The closer the mine gets to becoming a reality the more valuable OK's 45% stake becomes, with silver suffering, now is the ideal time for PAAS to get this deal done.
Personally, I believe PAAS will produce a FS before July if they really need to. They would have people working around the clock on it if there was a real chance of losing the project.
My guess is PAAS will hold back the FS, try and make a deal (which OK are desperate for) and only push through a FS before July if they need to to keep their stake. I would love us to refuse offers before OK's revised PEA and the FS/decision on the mine is issued, but we won't. I am not desperate to sell at $5, but I guess Cope and some of the major shareholders are. A deal in April is unlikely to be the best one for OK shareholders, a deal in late June just before PAAS has to issue a FS or lose the project would be. Remember once the FS is announced OK goes from exploration company to mine owner.
Cope imho is showing a bit of frustration which tells me he is 'much too desperate' for a deal to be done, much too desperate to haggle for the best possible deal. The fact is by July we will be bought out or it will be confirmed we are to be 45% owners of a significant silver mine. In real terms we will owe more than 45% given we are not paying a penny to build the mine. The fact is PAAS will never allow us get a single ounce of silver from the mine. For me this is not the time to show any signs of impatience. I would be talking about how much OK are looking forward to being part owners in a mine rather than appearing desperate for PAAS to make any offer. Copes comments about PAAS playing with fire smacks of desperation, as if PAAS does not know what they are doing? This is a poker game now, Gary strikes me to be ready to fold at the first PAAS raise. To get the best price you have to be able to say 'if we don't get the price we want we will wait for the mine', PAAS know that is not the case.
Cope did put a ceiling on the offer price when he said 'PAAS had $700million in cash - more than enough to take out OK', hence my basic maths gives a takeout price of about $5, approx 100% premium, too tempting for some of the larger OK shareholders to refuse even if it represents a steal for PAAS.
Orex is to raise $15m in the next 2-3 months, a sceptic like me just wonders whether some of the Orko board would like their 15% stake in Orko realised to allow them participate in this offering, surely not.
Interesting times, best of luck to everyone. As some people have been saying probably not the best time to be day trading Orko, as a deal could come at any time.