This time it’s different…I hope. We are now in the slow painful waiting period. Will NXO get some sort of revenue deal, or will ALIIS fizzle out just like the previous attempts? I am pumped about the technology and Rich Geruson, but can’t forget about NXO’s past, and neither should investors thinking of “mortgaging the house” to buy more.
At a risk of being dubbed a basher, here is a quick summary of NXO’s past deals that never came.
1) Telescope
First, NXO spent lots of money and time developing a telescope that never went anywhere. Right after finishing building and pumping this proof of concept, they switched to mobile lens development. Fair enough: I agreed with that logic since market for telescopes is small, and the telescope was meant to be a demo piece.
2) Mobile Lens
Again, after lots of money and time spent, NXO came up with a mobile lens prototype, and independent testing showed great performance. Lots of hyped investors with high expectations were making projections of how much money the company will make on licensing deals and how high the stock is going ($5/share, $10, $50, no limit). Time passed without any deals. Loyal investors were making excuses why no news about a deal: Management is busy "lining up all the ducks in a row", "they are positioning their chess pieces", "they’re playing their cards close to the vest", and other analogies. In the end, no deal ever materialized, and eventually the technology was written off for a massive loss.
3) Double Take
Next came DoubleTake. More money and time poured into research & development produced an impressive looking prototype. Again, lots of hype, various awards (including Edison awards), great reviews and promising plans for the future. In late 2018 NXO even had professional looking commercials created for the product. Again, investors were excited, waiting for manufacturing to take place and see the product on the shelves. Manufacturing date kept getting extended and extended and extended until NXO switched focus to AI software due to coronavirus. In the end, no units were ever manufactured, and the prototype sits in a closet without a penny of revenue earned.
4) ALIIS?
Now we come to the present: ALIIS. Impressive AI software for sure, and I can’t help being excited by the prospects. Development is finished, but no deal announced. NXO has a development partnership with two great companies, but no financial commitment from either as of yet. The waiting begins: Will this time be different?
In these situations it’s best to hunker down and wait patiently. Sometimes nothing is the best thing to do. Personally, I am optimistic and believe a deal will come (as I wrote in my prior posts); however, I am not buying any more shares until something definite with dollar signs comes out in a news release. More technical advancements, paid promotions, fireside chats, oversees office openings, or anything other than a revenue-generating deal will do it for me.
I don’t mean to be a downer, but I get concerned when I read about people overextending themselves on a pre-revenue high-tech startup stock. Remember, only 1% of startups become unicorns. I think NXO has a good chance, but there is a very real chance it may go to 0 as well. Just consider the risk and consequences of loss as well as the potential reward...that's all I'm trying to say.
Good luck to all.