RE: New Presentation$70 mm for a well is only for the drilling. Flow testing is extra. So any successfully tested well will be in the $75-80 mm range depending on the length of the test.
In your Scenario #2, CGX gets $100 mm. That will last for 2.5 successfully drilled and tested wells. So that would be enough $ to realistically do 2 wells as ½ a well doesn’t count. Then they will need to dilute as 2 wells is nowhere remotely close to what is needed to define a play with this large an aerial extent.
No future dilution for a play this large that will require maybe a dozen wells that cost over $70 mm each for a company without CF is not realistic. Even if the dilution comes at a higher price, it still has to happen for this play to move forward after any discover well.