A Big Question: If anyone can give a good answer to this question, then it would make investing in OYL at this time very clear.
Why did Shell never bother to drill another well after the blow out that did also encounter light oil? I certainly would not question if oil is there as it was obvious to me from a long time ago that Jaguar was going to find oil (at least in some of the upper zones given all those "positive samples" reports we have been getting in the local newspapers). I really thought technology improvements from 1975 to 2012 would have allowed the operator to over come the challenges faced by shell in 1975 but it appears the operator under estimated the difficulty.
Given the original cost of Jaguar, one would now expect that if another well is to be drilled, the costs will be higher as they will need to use a more expensive drilling technique and may be a more expensive day rate drilling rig. I strongly believe there is lots of oil in that lower zone but getting to it is the real challenge and Shell might have known this years ago but one certainly had to believe that newer technology would have made the drilling a none issue. At least they stopped in time before it became another blow out and cause bigger problems. Now I think everyone needs to ask the question as to how expensive the next well will be given that the first Jaguar cost so much money (in my opinion, it's definitely going to cost more than the Jaguar-1 cost given that they will most likely need to use a more expensive drilling technique and may be a higher rate drill rig). I'll wait for more clarity before buying back in.