RE:RE:JUNE-28-2021: CANJE LICENSE VALUATIONSchreibzey wrote: OIL_RUN, if I'm picking up what you're laying down, The Orinduik block (not to cross post) is also worth something similar, as well, meaning the market cap should be a clear 3.5 bagger from today.
Oil_Run was not making any reference to Orinduik, his analyisis was based on Canje and Eco Atlantic's buying 10% of JHI in that block. That would give JHI a market cap of 285Million. His conclusion is that if JHI owning 17.5% of Canje is worth 285million, then that CGX should be worth about 4Xs that for owning 66% of Corentyne. And then twice that again for owning Demerara, as well.
A couple of flaws with his analyisis, although the thinking is sound. Corentyne has identified 2 million barrels (between the mean and median) of oil prospects. No clue what has been identified on the Canje block. Could not find anything on the JHI website or Mid-Atlantic Oil and Gas. May have to dig through the Exxon and Total websites to get this answer.
Assuming they have identified a similar amount of prospects on Canje as on Corentyne, the $3.60 a share valuation is reasonable, but then Oil_Now incorrectly values Demerara the same as Corentyne. Demerara has only 25% of the propects Corentyne has, so that would be much less. More like .90 a share for a total of $4.50 per share.
Where the JHI bid would get a premium in my opinion, the first drill, and appraisel on success are carried. No worries about where that money is coming from. Also, the partners are Exxon and Total! Who better to be partnered up with to find oil? How much is that premium worth? Not sure, but definitely worth something.
So if Corentyne and Canje have a similar amount of prospects identified, CGX is worth under $4.50 / share. If Canje has more or less, this number would adjust accordingly.