CGX Energy Inc V.OYL

Re Dirk

[taal]

No one is going to value a company that doesn't have recurring income of 500 million a yr as operating income...please.... One Time income.....if they find oil again the next year...One time income...If someday way down the road Cgx has total oil assets of say 2 billion barrels and are now producing say 200.000 barrels a day say for the next 30 yrs ...then that would be operating income...minus expenses to give you net income ..which could then havea cap rate at whatever industry cap rate would bear....to arrive at a value..or share price...or market capitalization...

[Dirksidetrack]

Well I see it differently. I remember back in about 2003 Amazon was showing operating losses every year but Amazon sp was shooting upwards it's top line revenue number kept on exploding upwards. Bezos used that revenue to grow the business. He showed operating losses and avoided corporate taxes. There were also no dividends or retained earnings. He piled the revenues into the business so

[Miftee9]

There is lots to unravel here.... Value is a function of cash flow and risk.  The cash flow (or as you call it net income) divided by the risk gives you value (in very simplistic terms). So if you have cash flow of $100 and the risk rate of return is determined by a buyer to be 20%, then the value of the Company is $100/20% to give you $500.  If the Company has less risk say it is

[Dirksidetrack]

Not for me and thanks for that. Chapter 15 of my book deals with "Financial Performance Evaluation" and you are bang on with what the book says. But it gets even more technical and goes into Cash Flow Adequacy Ratios like (net cash flows from operating activities) / (net income), (net cash flow from operating activities) / (net sales), (net cash flow from operating activities) / (average

[tiger77]

Your first and only mistake that I can see is that you are trying to use a book to provide logic for a company / stock that doesn't follow general principals. It moves up and down at will with no ryme or reason at points. Been here a long time and it goes where it wants to go when it wants to go. Best advise is that if you're playing with money you can afford to lose ait back, watch and

[soulfire]

Spot on tiger. This stock does not conform to any conventional thinking. I had a friend who wanted to buy some and I told him if he was looking for fundamentals just don't buy. He ended up buying anyway at .88c so he's happy so far.

[Dirksidetrack]

Lol, Well geez I need some sort of benchmark. I read a comment that there's an 80% chance that they'll hit 50 million barrels so I'm going with that. So I'm betting that there's an 80% chance that they'll generate enough revenue to create decent cash flow and net imcome. But there's also a chance that they'll get packed off running casing sticking it in sloughing

[Dirksidetrack]

But I should add that by early November there is no abrupt drop in share price telling me that they have derisked potential pit falls and have them safely behind casing and the share price has been moving up gradually the deeper they get because they have incrementally derisked the well cost then I'm going to roll the dice on a discovery of at least 50 million barrels. If people want to sell

[waitingstill]

Dirk - I agree with previous posters. Can not really put a value on this as there are too many unknown variables just yet. Plus, it is a speculation stock and will run up or down on speculation as opposed to fundamentals.  But your previous post shows that your experience could be very helpful to us non-O&G types. I personally did not know that the spud is one of the more risky points in

[Dirksidetrack]

I have no info on the well, nor do I want any. Big money in play here. Wrong info or comment could cause serious problems. But, no doubt, info will be leaked but be very careful. It could be disinformation as well. That's why I stay away from saying anything to anybody about anything. For example yesterday I got a message on messanger from an old friend retired companyman that asked me if I

[waitingstill]

But what I am saying is if the company provides some news , you might be able to give some insight in deeper detail that what the rest of us can. I agree about information/disinformation. With these stocks, you never know if you are coming or going. I already have my exit strategy in place. I just hope I get a chance to deploy it! Been waiting 21 years on this thing.

[Dirksidetrack]

Forgot to mention that to me, from the limited knowledge I have at this point, CGX looks to be in pretty good shape grinding through their financial report. But it bothers me that it is unaudited meaning an independant third party didn't verify its veracity. They really need to produce audited reports if they want to gain share holder's full confidence. But if the reports are more or less

[Devanand1]

There is no need to have interim financial statements audited. However, all public companies must have their year end financial audited  and CGX's year end reports are audited.

[Dirksidetrack]

Ok thanks! I didn't know that. No worries then about accuracy. I wasn't that worried anyway because I don't think anybody would be crazy enough to outright lie inviting class action suits from angry investors.

[oldcompanyman]

Hi Waitingstill, For the operations timing, I had posted a "reasonable expectation" in a prvious post that I cannot find, you can check there. Whle trying to see if there was a means to see my previous posts, I realized I had received 2 messages in my inbox (apologies for not having see that before, I did not knwo forums have this functionality) but I couldn't find my timing post

[RightAngle45]

I would think you will be able to buy all the shares you want and then some , cheap , if they only have a discovery of 50,000,000 BOE.

[IceDog13]

There is no chapter that will cover an investment like this in your book. And that goes for ALL exploration companys. Do not confuse CGX as an oil company. They are not one. They are an exploration company plain and simple.  This is what I expect from an exploration company, and this is any of them, not just CGX. They are basicly a penny stock until a firm plan is in place to drill. Lets say

[Dirksidetrack]

Yeah I'm finally getting it. This sp does not behave rationally. So forget about applying logic. I do know that a guy like Warren Buffet wouldn't go near this stock. Not enough historical performance data for him. This is a gambler's stock as you say. Like playing blackjack at the casino. Have fun for a while with money that you don't mind losing.