CGX Energy Inc V.OYL

CGX VALUATION

[OIL_RUN]

What's the proper valuation of CGX???

What do you prescribe to a company that has now validated its acreage (Northern Corentyne Area) lies within the Guyana-Suriname Golden Highway???


I'll take a run at it...


Kawa (90ft of oil net pay in santonian, conservative) = recoverable resource ~300mmboe given +10,000 acre aerial extent.


300mmboe * $7/bbl (brent now above $90/bbl) * 67% interest = $1.5B US


Remaining mean estimate (oil recoverable resource) ~3 billion on Northern Corentyne Area given CGX's 67% interest.

3,000mmbie * risked $2/bbl (Brent above $90/bbl) = $6B.


No valuation on the port. No valuation on Demerara. No valuation on the remaining Corentyne Area.


In addition, pontential for Northern Corentyne Resource to be developed with single top side infrastructure (FPSO) given stacked pay. 



If having trouble digesting above numbers - cut them by half. 

 

GLTA

[oildarts2]

3.40 

[soulfire]

Thank you OIL_RUN

[Ermosp]

Thanks as always oil run. Can you drill a little deeper on where the $7/barrel comes from? It looks like it accounts for production costs, deduction to hand over operatorship to a major, possibly this increased royalties Guyana now wants.

[IceDog13]

  Oil_run is using the high end of what oil is valued at in the ground. I think $5 is a better number, but we all have our own. One thing to remember, the price of oil is absolutely irrelevant when evaluating CGX. They are not an oil producer, they are an exploration company. It will take 5 years for this find to start pumping oil (assuming it is commercial). Nobody knows what the price

[FatsDomino]

This is assuming you have oil. This is assuming it is good quality. This is assuming there is a good flow rate. This is assuming it is recoverable. Lots of assumption here needed to justify the present $ 1.2 billion market cap. Risk.Risk.Risk. Way overvalued here. Need more cash. PP incoming. See ya lower.