A nightmare for Bush?A nightmare for Bush?
03/11/2006 14:39 - (SA)
Washington - If Democrats win control of the US congress in the November 7 election, it would turn the capitol upside down and create a political nightmare for the already embattled President George W Bush.
If his Republicans lose the majority, Bush would hear newly empowered calls to withdraw US troops from Iraq and would suddenly face promised Democratic-led congressional investigations with subpoena power into the unpopular war.
Bush, whose public approval ratings are below 40%, would also face Democratic demands he offer "mainstream" rather than "right-wing" judicial nominees if he wants them confirmed.
Bush's fellow Republicans applied a rubber stamp to much of his conservative agenda the past six years, including tax cuts that went largely to the rich.
Polls show Democrats running ahead in the countdown to the congressional election. If they win control of Congress from Bush's fellow Republicans, they would challenge Bush on fronts ranging from his warrantless domestic spying programme to his energy and health-care policies.
"In some ways it would be a nightmare for Bush, but in other ways it could be an opportunity," said Norman Ornstein, a congressional scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
Ornstein said Bush, who denounces Democrats as soft on terrorism, could move toward the political centre and reach out to Democrats in his final two years in office to overhaul US immigration laws and the social security retirement programme, two goals he has failed to accomplish.
But Ornstein said that was unlikely.
"I've talked to a lot of people who know him well and are really close to him. I have yet to find one who thinks he will change his modus operandi dramatically," he said.
A new direction for America
Democrats deny Republican claims they would try to impeach Bush and remove him from office.
Instead, they plan to push their own agenda, "A new direction for america," which includes raising the federal minimum wage for the first time in a decade, ending some tax breaks to oil companies and making college more affordable by reducing federal student loan interest rates.
Democrats also promise to implement recommendations from the 9/11 commission to bolster security, ease the threat of global warming and, in response to influence-peddling scandals on Capitol Hill, clean up the way congress does business.
"Surprisingly little" will become law, predicted Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia.
"We're headed for gridlock."
If Democrats pick up at least 15 seats to end 12 years of Republican rule in the 435-member House of Representatives, it will likely be by a slim majority, he said.
And, he said, whether Republicans hold the 100-member senate or lose it to Democrats, neither side will likely have the 60 votes routinely needed to pass controversial bills.
Fears of raised taxes
Bush has predicted Republicans would surprise pollsters and keep the house and senate. In recent weeks he also has reiterated a Republican battle cry, saying, "Democrats will raise taxes."
Democrats would be unlikely to extend Bush's tax cuts beyond the 2010 expiration but plan to push for lower deficits while keeping popular tax breaks for the middle class.
They say their oversight hearings would focus on what critics see as "waste, fraud and abuse of taxpayers' dollars" in Iraq, homeland security and relief after hurricane Katrina.
Henry Waxman of California, who would be government reform committee chairperson if Democrats took control, said: "It's an important part of congress's duty under the constitution to do vigilant oversight. Republicans failed in that regard in the past six years."
House Republican whip Roy Blunt of Missouri said if Democrats won control, "taxes go up, the economy falters and we have a party in charge that doesn't understand what the war is all about."
"What happens if Democrats take control of the house?" house democratic whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland asked.
"Shouting and glee after being in the wilderness for all these many years."