RE:Very Strong Same Store Growth in Feb and March 2023 Hey Nozz, the 10's- 3m's inverted yield curve just surpassed the 1980's historical lows. It has an almost perfect score of predicting future recessions. The only other soft landing, if you will, is the 1966 when the yield curve inverted and we avoided a recession. Do you want to know what happened to real gdp in 1966? It peaked at 8.48% and troughed at 2.67% in the second quarter of 1967. Now you may say, they avoided a negative gdp quarter, but gdp still dropped significantly. Aside from that, the track record of 10's-3m's predicting future recessions is almost a perfect score.
As interest rates continue to be elevated, the lag effect on Monetry policy, specifically in Canada, is going to be felt when people renew their mortgages.
Btw, I often get asked why hasn't the recession happened? Well, to answer that question, it takes on average 10 months for the recession to begin after the yield curve inversion. We are only about 6 months into this one. If by miracle we avoid a recession and massive layoffs, then I'm pretty sure real gdp numbers are going to be very low and corporations are going to take a hit on earnings.