Reitmans Ord Shs V.RET.A

Canada unemployment rate rises

[Torontojay]

Canada's economy shed 17,000 jobs in May, Statistics Canada reported on Friday, in what could be an early signal the Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate hiking campaign is starting to take hold of the labour market.

The consensus expectation among economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 21,300 gain.

StatCan reported the job declines were concentrated in full-time work, while part-time jobs modestly increased.
 

The summer job market for students in particular had a major setback in May. Employment among those aged 15-24 plunged by 77,000. Meanwhile, employment for people aged 25 to 64 surged by 63,000. Historically, May is a strong month for youth employment as businesses hire students to gear up for the busy summer.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.2 per cent, marking the first increase in nine months.

Average wage growth slowed slightly to 5.1 per cent.

Total hours worked fell 0.4 per cent month-over-month, which could have negative implications for GDP.

“While most of the job losses were concentrated in the younger age cohort (15-24 year-olds), the drop in full-time jobs and reduction in hours worked point to weakness under the hood,” James Orlando, director and senior economist at TD Economics, said in a note.

“The labour market had been defying gravity for months and was bound for some giveback. Our forecast implies that the massive job gains of prior months are behind us, causing the unemployment rate to rise towards 6% by the end of this year.”

In the first quarter alone, 231,000 jobs were added, making it the best non-pandemic quarter on record, according to BMO Capital Markets.

While one month doesn’t make a trend, it’s the first sign the labour market might be easing, which is viewed by the Bank of Canada as key to slowing the overall economy.

On Wednesday, the central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.75 per cent, citing the stronger-than-expected economy and the risk that inflation gets stuck above its two per cent target.

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/job-market-pullback-signals-rate-hikes-may-start-bite-124120462.html

[TheCount11]

BoC focus is getting wage increases to 2%. "Average wage growth slowed slightly to 5.1 per cent." is nowhere close.

[nozzpack]

Just statistical sampling noise.....hardly 1/20 of a sigma.. our Q1 is going to be very good

[Torontojay]

Nozz, you are stubborn. The second half of the year is not looking good for both Canada and the US.  Reitmans might have a good quarter but the lags can be quite long. I'm always reminded that two thirds of Canadians have to renew their mortgages at much higher payments. This will take away from discretionary spending and consumption in general. If you wish to call this noise, then

[filoux004]

Torontojay I side with you , it's not pretty out there especially condo mkt 500-700k on variable rates. Add the taxes and condo fees and you get the picture and it is not pretty. That being said long ret.a the metric are just too compelling and obviously announcing process to uplist would be a positive catalyst. DD and glta

[RedeyeGarf2]

First Quarter is usually not the best for Reitmans. Last year, they lost money on an earning basis but was net postive for cash flow of 9.9 million. 

[TheCount11]

Deferred Capex will hit CashFlows. Eg PENN rebrand new and existing store refresh RFID - Inventory & Self serve cash register

[TheCount11]

Is Reitmans going to have a "great" Q1?  Gotta walk the stores folks it will give you an edge if you combine it with the Stockhouse indicator.  PS a great Q1 is not priced into the stock.

[nozzpack]

Just sell then and buy in after a bad Q1. Otherwise, you are hardly an astute investor  N'est Pas ?

[TheCount11]

Is Q1 going to be "bad"?  You have to walk the stores.  The magic happens when there is a difference between what I am seeing vs the Stockhouse indicator.

[nozzpack]

Last year, the talking heads said that the first half of 2023 would be hit by a recession. Now, having got that wrong , they say the recession will hit in the second half of 2023. At some point they will get it right  but it will be by fortuity not prescient prediction.

[Torontojay]

Hey Nozz, I never called for a recession in the first half but others may have.  This is my post from Feb 10,2023.  https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.tva.b/tva-group-inc-class-b?threadid=35278908

[nozzpack]

Thank you. Your construct is quite logical as is its expected outcome. As you imply, the only way in which inflation will be brought down in a signifucant manner is a recession . This is the Central banks so called soft landing which is hardly likely if they truly wanted inflation to fall permanently  The fly in the ointment ...and there is always one neglected in hind casting....is the