Reitmans Ord Shs V.RET.A

Cpi prediction for today

[Torontojay]

Canada's inflation rate will fall to ~ 3.6% y/y. This month or next month will likely be the bottom inflation print for the rest of the year or until a recession brings it down. People are going to be celebrating this number but keep in mind that energy prices peaked around last year this time. It's too early to be celebrating the inflation war. 

 

A few things worth noting about Canada's economy. 

-labour productivity is -1.75% y/y from Q1 this year to last year 

- average hours worked is down -0.8% y/y which took a nose dive in Q1. 

Before businesses layoffs their workers, they usually reduce their working hours. First, productivity turns negative, then the average work week is reduced, then finally layoffs emerge.

- quarter over quarter analyzed, the average hrs worked is down 2.43% which raises a red flag on the economy.

[Torontojay]

Here is an update:    Lowest reading since June 2021 Prior was 4.4% CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.5% expected Prior m/m reading was 0.7% Gasoline prices -18.3% vs -7.7% y/y in prior month  Gasoline prices -0.8% m/m vs +6.3% prior month Ex gasoline +4.4% vs +4.9% prior Food +8.3% vs +9.1% y/y prior Mortgage interest costs 4.9% y/y vs 4.9% increase

[filoux004]

Excellent analysis.... greedflation ie food retailers and wholesellers must be addressed. 2) The X factor is the energy prices, but that's always being the case. Bottom line central banks having egg on their face by reacting way too late are now on mission to be perceived as guardians of price stability and have lost sight of the damage they are inflicting to the mere mortals. It's high

[flamingogold]

The consumer is heavily indebted because rates were too low for too long. And yet current rates are still below historical averages. Retires have been getting screwed for almost 15 years now and forced to take on more risk in the market, and time is not on their side if a mistake is made. Food inflation is still out of control. Housing is back to record highs. I would be in favour of another 1/4

[TheCount11]

Things BoC staffers are likely working on: How is CPI calculated?  How many upward revisions since 2020?  Basket weights changing.  Why do hedonic adjustments only seem to go one way? How does immigration affect GDP? The stench of bad econometrics means policy makers have no clue. Example:  Labor productivity In the short run the less productive labor is the greater their

[Torontojay]

I agree with you TheCount11.  Here is another issue I hear people say:  The banks will just extend the amortization to 35+ years and everything is going to be just fine. This is utter stupidity imo.  All you're doing is compounding the bubble.  You bring down inflation through deleveraging and by extending mortgages you're just adding more fuel to the fire. In

[filoux004]

Bottom line you will never pay down your mortgage and will never fully own your house.  The elastic will be stretched to infinity, but we all know a rupture will occur. Got to keep that consumption train rolling. Long ret a

[TheCount11]

Agreed "All you're doing is compounding the bubble." Unfortunately 'we' have to play the cards that are delt.  Eventually 'we' will have to roll with the punches.  Personally I think this environment has set up the golden age of stock picking.  Unfollowed stocks present great opportunities both short term and long term

[flamingogold]

Here I agree with you. Freeland and Trudeau do not want to be the ones in power when the nation's biggest economy implodes. Rates today are now back to 20 year highs. But, back then around 2020 the average Canadian home was selling for 10x less. I see a stop sign, road barriers and a cliff ahead!

[flamingogold]

Correction... Here I agree with you. Freeland and Trudeau do not want to be the ones in power when the nation's biggest economy implodes. Rates today are now back to 20 year highs. But, back then around 2000 the average Canadian home was selling for 10x less. I see a stop sign, road barriers and a cliff ahead!

[sorrenson]

And they werent adding 1 million immigrants a year while the housing shortage balloons  Disgusting

[TheCount11]

Politicians need to review housing policies and remove red tape.  Can't take 6 years to build condos in our cities.

[TheCount11]

Hopefully economy does not implode!  I think a stagflationary recession will force apparel companies to rethink e-commerce.  Zara is a master class on apparel.  Investors should know the company inside out.   Lots of terrible e-commerce analysis for omnichannel apparel.  Its just plain wrong. Implementing tagelss RFID will make store network even more