RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:What has changed?Actually, if you read carefully and understand what was written, onboarding risk is addressed.
The current NR actually deals with onboarding risk as in....they said they would onboard ~2,000 patients a month and they did. I don't care if they come from under the ocean, I care that management meets their goals relative to the amount onboarded. If they don't, then we can all evaluate the stock with a different lens...but I like to take the approach of management is truthful until proven otherwise. Also, management's comp. is very very share price based...I generally like when there are personal incentives to raise SP.
As for collection risk, every company has AR. Fortunately, RHT collects payment from insurance companies given their business model. I am more inclined to trust an insurance co. to pay. My argument would be A/R collection is a lower risk for a co. getting paid through corporate rather than retail channels.
As for the 1.5x expenses, it is an estimate...you're free to add 2x expenses or 4x expenses or whatever you want and determine what the SP should be. Keep in mind, my scenario looks at 51,000 patients which don't require any advertising or any R/D or any of the other similar costs currently in play.
I like that you don't question my obviously ridiculously low/ conservative P/E of 20.....
You seem to be extremely risk adverse...as with any stock, there is risk. I suggest you project EPS fully dilluted with 51,000 patients onboarded, as I have in a previous post. In that calc. you can put any expenses that you want and even give it a P/E of 5....I'm certain you will find the co. very overvalued with that criteria.
Given your apparent risk tolerance and need to see into the future to feel comfortable owning anything, I also suggest a 1.75% variable rate GIC....that might be more in line with your risk tolerance. Interest rates are growing so I'm sure in 3 years you can bump that rate to 2.5%.
Finally as to the 85% EBITA, it is achieved when the company achives 60K patients onboarded, assuming costs don't change. Of course they will, but to give you an idea. If costs double then they will need 120K patients. Most analyst reports (ie. Beacon) estimate ~210K patients in the coming years... that means costs can go up ~3.6 times the current amount and still achieve 85% EBITDA.
Add some numbers to your thinking, maybe run some scenarios...attach probabilities to said scenarios to arrive at a FV for the stock price. This is a very personal and subjective exercise, I can't spoon feed you my numbers for you to keep running qualitative arguments against that are founded on your fears.
If your calculated FV < current SP, sell. If not, buy or hold.
Welcome to investing 101.