RE:RE:RE:RHT HIRES LYTHAM PARTNERS AS INVESTOR RELATIONS PROG.Again, both of you have an obsession in this type of number guesstimating game. Not a problem with me in any way for recreational purpose. Never take it as a serious investment tool for Reliq any time soon. The problem is in the data used as I pointed out their shortcoming in my previous post. That is why the market does not see eye to eye with your methology. In the future when this company establishes some reliable and stable trend of revenue growth/expenses/margins then we have a platform to argue on accuracy. Not when a trend is far from taking shape.
theinvestor22 wrote: I've found that many early stage SAAS companies tend to get valued based on a p/rev model, however, if you wish to go down the road you're travelling (which isn't necessarily a bad idea), then a few points are in order:
1. I don't see any forex adjustment. Are you assuming CAD $50/patient/month?
2. You've clearly fudged the gross margin % to come up with the same bottom line in all 3 cases. I can't recall any small business offhand that keeps reducing its gross margin with increased sales. If you go the other way, with maybe a 75% GM at the top sales level, you'll get a bottom line (fair value) of $1.27. 3. Tax rate is 26.5% in Canada. I usually use 27% because there are sometimes a few non-deductible items.
4. I think you should assume a greater number of shares outstanding as the rev increases.
These last 2 items won't change the fv much, but you might as well be a little more precise.
lscfa wrote: Reaching cash flow positive (whatever that means) is not enough to justify current share price.....
| Patients | 52,000 | 42,000 | 35,000 |
| Rev @ $50 / mo | 7,800,000 | 6,300,000 | 5,250,000 |
| Gross margin | 40% | 50% | 60% |
| Gross profit | 3,120,000 | 3,150,000 | 3,150,000 |
| Cash expenses | 1,800,000 | 1,800,000 | 1,800,000 |
| Operating income | 1,320,000 | 1,350,000 | 1,350,000 |
| 30% tax | 396,000 | 405,000 | 405,000 |
| Net income | 924,000 | 945,000 | 945,000 |
| Shs o/s | 178,358,475 | 178,358,475 | 178,358,475 |
| eps | $0.005 | $0.005 | $0.005 |
| Annualized eps | $0.021 | $0.021 | $0.021 |
| Multiple | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Sh value | $0.41 | $0.42 | $0.42 |