October So it seems the promise seems to be things will be clarified in October. So until then it seems there'll be nothing to do on this board than argue with Mitch. Great!
Stuff I took from the webinar.
1) I still don't fully understand what gets talked about in press releases with regard to onboarding of patients but it's a little clearer now. Take the Mexico contract. That was headlined with 10,000 patients onto the system in the first year but in terms of actual revenue generating patients it sounds like a very niche few getting "concierge" services which might mean only dozens or hundreds of actual revenue generators. Having some scaling factor to convert these headline 10,000 patients into actual cash generating patients seems like a pretty big part of the puzzle in understanding the short/medium term trajectory of this company and dealing with the seeming endless disappointments. I would call this another bottleneck in the process from our perspective given we don't have a clear insight, she seems to understand it as potential in the pipeline. I think resolving this would be helpful. At least she's started to talk about this publically which is progress. I think this doesn't just apply to the Mexico contract. The "staged" nature of client rollouts means that all these headline patients in the system numbers need to be significantly scaled back if we are trying to understand th3 short/medium term impact on revenue.
2) Seems to be that she's pushing the impact of adherence improvement on actual revenue back to the 2nd half of CY 2023. That always seemed likely. I'd decided in my mind that what they announced at the start of 2023 about improvements in adherence probably should have been understood as a 'pilot project' and that implementation of the new company based adherence process would be rolled out across the whole platform thru 2023. Her language suggested to me they are still firmly in the middle of that process. Adherence is NOT at 70% now, that's still a future orientated goal.
I think we have to probably see the whole of 2023 as a transition period (maybe forever transition with these types of companies) and if we are lucky we'll start to see the trajectory in October.
I thought she made some very big promises for how things will change from October onwards in terms of insight into the company. We'll see whether that pans out. Or alternatively (Mitch) move on!