RE: Real Opportunity Here I totally agree.
I can't help but think the strategic review will result in a 25% cut in the divi, small sale of mediocre assets and a restatement that the divi-growth model is the way to go. I read and hear a lot about the debt, the debt, the debt!! It's a little high, but it's not crippling them. Oil price is high, differential falling; hedges in place cover as well. Great assets and these guys are sharpshooters when it comes to drilling results.
In cutting the divi only slightly they message to the market that they are calm under pressure, they are financially responsible, they listen to their shareholder base and they can sell it as an adjustment moving forward, not a crisis or a re-think. They maintain business plan initiative. A divi elimination entirely is an admission that don't know what they're doing. A total loss of confidence will result....imagine the big fund managers being told they can no longer expect any income from the investment. Holy stampede for the exit!!! What a mistake that would be.
Remember, whiting refinery coming online soon and Obama will announce keystone. With book value now at 0.496, their assets are not priced correctly at all. Optimal performing light oil producer with a track record of good results, reliable dividend should be trading at a reasonable 1.25 - 1.5x book. I expect renegade to slowly rise to that over the next year to eighteen months. With good wells, available pipeline infrastructure, a track record of results, the market sentiment could shift and the premium for the whole sector could change to something in the range of 2 - 2.5x book.
I think the worst is over and time is now on RPL's side.