RE:Argentina set to default on debtA funny end of the days trading again today .. Was that you Kev' ;) .. Well, if it was, thanks, I got a fill on an order that I didn't think I would get .. Thanks again! :)
The link you provided, after the juicy stuff that is designed to get folks to read it added:
Given the comparatively small size of debt involved, Argentina's economy is viewed as unlikely to crash to the lows seen after the 2001 default, when gross domestic product (GDP) shrunk by nearly 11 percent and unemployment rose above 22 percent. Instead, Capital Economics sees Latin America's third-biggest economy contracting by a more-benign 1 percent this year.
in another article in USA Today: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/07/28/argentina-debt-negotiations/13295291/
The writer states: "There's no link to the economic activity. It's independent to the evolution of these restructuring processes," Capitanich said, adding that Argentina's cash flow is guaranteed by the surplus in its trade balance and recent investment deals signed with China.
Many economic analysts and bond buyers agree that the effect of a default would be limited because, in contrast to 2001, Argentina is now solvent.
At the end of the day this is a matter of Argentinian pride. Pulling themselves out of a deep hole through negotiators that allowed investors to recover and profit with the exception of these "Vulture Funds" that insisted on getting all their pie .. With interest and penalties. Though to the unsophisticated this might seem fair, they did agree to pay, often in situations like these a negotiated settlement that is fair to both sides is reached. The Vulture want it all .. That's not negotiation.
Argentina just days ago paid off its bond to City Bank. It will do the same with other bond holders who buy their Bonds.
If anything, this is likely to spur Argentina on to a more capitalistic path. To further improve it's balance of trade by becoming more energy self sufficient. As Jay Newman said in the video in your post, business is "raring to get back in to Argentina" his supposition that the investment community is waiting to play out to do so is entirely self serving and patiently untrue. Total et al 1.2 Billion dollar investment, Shell, Apache', CNOC, KNOC, etc etc are already in. A 57 million dollar financing was just completed this month for a Calgary company making a little over 1200 boe/d was just completed and oversubscribed for additional acquisition of assets in Argentina. It included most of the major brokerage houses here in Calgary. Those folks aren't dumb.
Thanks for for the post Kev', your posts are always entertaining ;)
Doc.