RE: RE: RE: RE: Can we have some serious dn here?Well, Pettycamp...........
Your valid question is easily answered. First, we have to assume that Paul VanEeden would be correct in his opinion. On the other side of the table, there are those who believe that China has been hoarding copper because they realize that they will be taking over the first spot in the world economies in a short time from now. The idea that the gdp growth in China is artificial begs the question whether the last 25 years in the U.S. had anything to do with reality.
The gdp growth in the U.S. has been proven to be artificial as we all know by now, because it was all created by debt.
I think that China has a much better long term outlook on their finances than the U.S. has. They know that their savings and strong financial position will allow them to work through any dips they may experience in the next decade. Sure, they have a fast paced growth...................but then again, so did the U.S..............once, a long time ago.
Anyone who believes that China is done with their growth simply does not understand the sheer volume it represents, and the strength and resolve of its people. So, perhaps van Eeden is correct, and then again perhaps he isn't. The facts remain that China is making what the world is buying, and as they move along they are taking money from all the developed countries out there and building for themselves a middle class and some nice big new clients in their own people. There will be dips along the way but eventually we may notice that they have done it in a manner that is more sustainable than the U.S. has done it, thus it should last longer. They build for the long term, whereas here in North America , we look short term. I have grave doubts as whether anything now can China from continued growth, although we know the pace may change at some point for a little while.
Having said that............last year copper prices went down and now they are up again..............by the time SA is even near any type of extraction or JV on their largest copper property, no one knows exactly where those prices will be. Add to that the fact that the only big copper property we know of for SA is Selodong, and the rest of the properties are targeting gold if I am not mistaken. Seems to me that the gold content of Selodong will make it an interesting property despite a downturn in copper prices, because the timing can be arranged.
In the meantime, SA has a multitude of other properties that can be looked at. Now, any company that is a one trick pony would indeed see a substantial haircut, I agree there.
Remember that economies move in cycles............any downturn in China would be temporary because they are at stage one of growth, which will be followed by stage two, where a middle class will create demand for products within the country and they will be less dependent on exporting. It is how every country builds itself. Also remember that China is not the only country that is growing fast. India is also on the map for growth and will soon be using more copper as well.
There are some who will never accept that this company is actually taking its time to build something of fundamental value on a strong foundation, which will distinguish it from other juniors who adopt the hit and run strategy so well known to the venture market. I'll hang into any company that is moving forward with a clear strategy and where the CEO owns a very large position, including the fact that he buys at market prices once and again.
There will always be ups and downs, but in the end, this was for many of us a long term investment and not just a quick in and out based on drill results that you could sell on once you made a few pennies. The unforeseen administrative issues has made that term a lot longer than most expected, but at this point in time, I am very confident that the rewards will far outweigh the opportunity cost that has been an issue for the last few years.
Whatever your argument or Paul VanEeden's is about copper prices applies to all those juniors in copper, not just to SA. The difference is that SA has other options and properties that will allow it to continue to move forward once all the administrative issues are done with, which should be very very soon now. I don't see SA as a hit and run company. I think it is building a foundation for a long term corporate existence. I know you don't share that view, and that is your prerogative. Everyone sees what they wish to see, and as I own a substantial position in this company, it is imperative that I keep up to date on all activities and see all angles, therefor I personally have no problem discussing valid issues.
It was a valid question indeed and consider this my humble answer to it.
btw..........I'm not quite living in a fairy tale as you seem to believe most longs here are doing.......................but on the other hand I also try not to live in a perpetual nightmare either.
cheers,
vwig.