What exactly is included in the AbbVie deal?...Allergan Aesthetics will develop and commercialize topical skin care treatments based on active ingredients derived from certain of Sirona's patents for TFC-1067 and related family of compounds.
1a) Please note the use of plural of treatments, meaning that AbbVie intends to market more than one product on the market
1b) Please note the use of plural of ingredients, more than one - meaning that more than one compound is involved
1c) Please note that certain patents is front and center in the new release, meaning that AbbVie has bought the right to use the whole library - not only TFC-1067
2a) Sirona Biochem refers to TFC-1067 as treatment for dyschromia (or hyperpigmentation)
2b) The primary market is the hyperpigmentation market that was the focus in the clinical trials, last one financed by AbbVie
2c) The hyperpigmentation market size is projected to about USD 6 biilion 2023 with CAGR of 7.2 percent (starting with USD 3.947 million 2017)
https://www.transparencymarketresearch.com/hyperpigmentation-disorders-treatment-market.html
3) I'm not so sure that AbbVie will dare to address the USD 7.5 Billion skin lightening market, but if they to I think they have the compounds to go for it - and probably argue that they are at least replacing dangerous treatments with a safe one. I recall that Sirona referred to another compound than TFC-1067 after the R+F deal, intented for the asian market. Might be skin lightening.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-trends/Asia-s-skin-whitening-market-reckons-with-global-antiracist-push
The conclusion is that the deal is probably financially pretty substantial. Not primarely intended for the skin lightening even if that one might be addressed as well. It's not about a single product or single ingredient/compound, but multiple.
I think PRC Partners Analysis in incorrect referring to (only) skin lightening, but potentially partly correct because of the asian market.
If AbbVie get traction with this effective and safe treatments, maybe both prescriptions and over the counter (which would indicate an expandiing market), I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to grasp 15 percent market share. Time will tell.
The disclosure of the upfront in the upcoming financials should indicate how valuable the deal is percieved by Sirona and AbbVie.