Inside the sportsbook: How books, bettors are handling the 60 game MLB season
COPY From > C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore.
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Baseball is back, and oddsmakers are rolling out a full menu of betting options for the upcoming MLB season, one that will be unlike any we've ever seen.
We caught up with Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to discuss how books are preparing for an unprecedented season, how they'll adjust midseason, and what MLB bettors are targeting ahead of Opening Day.
How has the market changed?
It's hard to predict what might happen in a 60-game season - MLB's shortest since 1878 - but most books are tightening prices on long shots and dealing better odds on favorites compared to what they offered before the season was delayed.
The reason is twofold: a small sample size leads to more volatility, and the inevitability of players missing time due to the coronavirus pandemic will affect the market in ways we can't predict.
“From a standpoint of futures, we're being a bit more conservative," Rood said. "You're not necessarily going to see the 1,000-1 teams because the makeup of teams can change quickly."
Sure enough, some clubs have already been dealt significant blows. The defending champion Nationals, for example, will be without slugger Ryan Zimmerman and starter Joe Ross, who both opted out due to risks relating to the pandemic. Other teams will be without key players at the start of the season as they recover from the virus.
Aside from roster changes, though, Rood said he isn't making any special adjustments for teams that project better or worse in a 60-game slate compared to a normal year. The World Series market is a bit tighter all around, but as it pertains to win totals, very little has changed.
"We basically just took what we had projected them to be from a win percentage and calculated that toward a 60-game season," Rood said. "You don't want to put too much of your opinion into it."
What will happen in-season?
If books aren't sure yet what to expect, they'll find out quickly, as the season kicks off with 46 games from July 23-26, accounting for almost 3% of the overall schedule.
Most years, oddsmakers can wait and see with baseball, a sport notorious for teams having hot stretches before regressing to the mean. With only 60 games this season, though, books will have to kick old habits to avoid being exploited in the market.
"I've always said the bookmaking community is slow to make changes," Rood said. "We are driven by sample size. I think in this particular scenario, we're going to need to react really quickly."
Some books are already changing their approach for this season, such as posting set lines for each matchup without listing pitchers. Rood says, barring a widespread shift, he'll continue to deal MLB games the same way he always has - including listing pitchers - but he knows this season could pose unique challenges for handicapping games.
"We're all kind of still wondering what's going to happen," he said.
Take starting pitchers, for example. Will they have a shorter leash after such a long layoff? Or will they pitch deeper into games, since their projected workload will be roughly 30% of what it would be in a full-length season? Will hitters tee off on rusty pitchers early in the year, or will their own bats run cold?
Many of those questions will likely be answered early in the season, and Rood knows he'll have to be more proactive to get ahead of trends.
"We'll be aggressive in that manner and be willing to be off-market, if necessary," he said.
Who are bettors targeting?
To no one's surprise, the pandemic has shaped the market heading into 2020. The Angels were a team that drew some early money, but with the possibility of Mike Trout missing extended time for the birth of his first child, that interest has cooled off. Bettors are also fading the Dodgers, who saw starter David Price opt out and others miss time in camp with unexplained absences.
Beyond those two teams, bettors have mostly spread the wealth in the futures market at theScore Bet.
"I think a lot of people are thinking that anything can happen," he said. "We're seeing some good money across the board."
Bettors are targeting two New York sluggers - Pete Alonso (+800) and Aaron Judge (+1200) - to lead the majors in home runs, which is predictable in a public-friendly market. Once the season starts, Rood expects those same bettors to chase trends and hot streaks, even at short odds.
Until then, he's optimistic that customers will reinvest some of the money they were refunded from preseason bets dating back to before the season was suspended, and that wagering volume eventually returns to pre-pandemic levels.
"It's not great, but we're still getting a pretty good amount of engagement," Rood said. "I'm hoping once the first pitch is thrown, we get back to normal pretty quickly."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.