RE: Not so fast Alex ,Mr Bingguo said 3
IVN announced Q2 today
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/turquoise-hill-resources-announces-financial-002852938.html
--$289m = 0.35 ./sh loss vs $6 m gain Q1 2011
-- 260 m sh dilution = $ 1.8 m share sales + extra 74 m warrants for RIO
-- spent $ 667 m on OT - plant & equip + exploration only
-- spent $ 5.,2 b on OT construction to date
- IVN used the SGQ $26.8 M change in the fair value of SouthGobi's embedded derivatives AS IT'S OWN .. wow ! - to offset above loses -re-hipotecation ?
- phase 1 = 100 kt/d ore open pit almost complete
--phase 2 = underground to a total 160 kt/d ore will take 6 Y and another + $ 6 b
--Oyu Tolgoi LLC has committed more than $126.0 million in funding over five years for education and training programs in Mongolia
-- IVN included in it's Q2 a digest of SGQ Q2 report
--iVN EXPECTS $ 533- 889M FROM SALE OF IT'S STAKE IN SGQ, depending on other shareholders participation
-- upon the end of each Chalco extension of the bid they can:
-- withdraw the bid
-- extend it again for total 180 days from the date of the offer ( =till Nov 2012)
to allow time for regulatory processes to be completed , , including Investment Canada Act
and Competition Act approvals, Chinese regulatory approvals, regulatory approvals from the Government of Mongolia,
-- RIO wants it's $ 1.8 b money loaned to IVN back ( they want to put at risk
bagholders money - not their own..... LOL) .Payable from proceeds of planed Project financing package by December 31, 2012.
BUT GIVEN THE SHOCKWAVES THE M APARATCHICKS SENT AMONG FOREIGN INVESTORS , i DO NOT SEE ANYBODY IN THEIR RIGHT MIND TO LEND ANY MONEY FOR M PROJECTS
AT LEAST TILL CLARIFICATION AND EXTRA GUARANTEES BY M .GOV
IN THAT CASE SALE OF SGQ WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRESSING FOR IVN TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PAY BACK RIO
Chalco is the main entity keeping state-owned Mongolian miner Erdenes MGL ALIVE
It is buying 15 million tonnes of coking coal per year from above Tavan Tolgoi mine ( 70% of M exports )
by giving them money way ahead , so they are able to mine the coal
and to distribute the profits to population in form of divy/ welfare cheques.
So, stabbing Chalco by aparatchiks on SGQ may have also those consequences :
* Erdenes MGL can end up going under if they force Chalco to be as nasty as they are ..... in response
* M coal exports can colapse
*and no welfare cheques to people who hate the very Chalco who makes them possible
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Alex , by VOLUNTARILY STOPPING PRODUCTION inflicted more loses on M gov than on SGQ
Say, SGQ net profits are 13% of rev and M royalties on SGQ rev are also 13% ( another M scam - but separate topic)
So , both lose 13% ( about $ 25 m /y )
But M gov loses much more ( say $ 35m/y on top of $25 m ) on payroll tax of 1000 workers ,
+ VAT on the $ 250m /y the workers don't spend /make / invest
+ , export duties , taxes of truckers and contractors and other fees /charges.
The usual spinn-off effect on wider economy by a business is 3 times it's rev .
We are talking $ 700m /y pain for everybody in M vs $ 960 m SGQ stake buying value.
Geeeesus
MEANWHILE , SGQ enjoys a rise by $ 26 m / Q of their CONVERT derivatives ..by doing nothing
LOOOL
CLARIFICATION OF ALEX CONTRADICTORY AND CONFUSING SATEMENTS ABOUT SOME SGQ LICENCES.
THE MAIN MINING PERMIT IS NOT SUSPENDED
ALEX QUOTE FROM Q2 REPORT
"As at August 13, 2012, the Company has not received any official notification to suspend exploration and mining activity and has no reason to believe SouthGobi's licenses are not in good standing."
The scared, paralyzed bureaucrats ( coruption trial of top official- they can be next
and change / non-existence of M gov ) chose the only thing to safely survive : TO DO NOTHING
No decisions which can be fatal for them if not in ( unclear ) line with new people at top ,
No permits , no answering SGQ letters for clarificatioin - just waiting to see
Bureaucrats DIDN'T TAKE AWAY ANYTHING FROM SGQ ,
THEY JUST DIDN'T GIVE SGQ THE NEW , DUE , ADDITIONAL LICENCES/ RENEWALS AND PERMITS SGQ NEEDS TO GROW
( new mining and exploration permits for new areas , new wash plant permit etc. )
Bureaucracy was frozen for 4 months - there was no one to talk to about the SGQ stake sale either.
ADDITIOINAL NEWEST CLUE THIS PARALYSIS IS ENDING
The new structure of gov includes reducing number of gov agencies from 43 to 28 but expanding number of ministers
We don't know which ones will stop to exist , but elegant solution would be
chopping off the MRAM agency - the one refusing the issue of more permits to SGQ and the one sued by SGQ
Shifting the authority to IE ministry level -= new people ,new procedures , new start.
All that should happen within next week so, Chalco / IVN can finally have a place to apply for deal approval .
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Couple more reasons in addition to 4 here
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=31384903&l=0&r=0&s=SGQ&t=LIST
why Alex is going out of his way to harm SGQ SP ( looks like his job description lately as CEO hmmmm )
1, he has been told by Chalco they will withdraw - NOT LIKELY because Alex said
Chalco didn't contact him in a month and he stressed it is his "personal opinion"
2. He knows/ feels he will be removed by RIO and is paying them back
RIO just 2 days ago finished installing new directors at IVN and maybe they will now move 1 level lower and install their pople at SGQ & IVN Au
So, Alex is responding with scorched earth tactics .
His decission on voluntarily stopping production could infuriate RIO
( escalate the stand-off with nasty gov , besides losing money ) and they are about to fire him
Or not ....we just see a tip of an iceberg as the machinations , 'plays" , short rides are concerned
3, If I'll go anyways, why not make a side deal with a short rider - for say 10% of his profits
(Reuters , AS NO OTHER OFFICIAL SGQ NEWS RELEASE, bombarded the wires repeteadly
-like 5 times during the day of 22% drop.....
...broadcasting THE SAME article containing Alex' "personal opinion"
geeeeesus
Finding out who paid Reuters (or the author )for such repeated posting would be interesting
Mess indeed
.