RE: Outstanding article - everyone should readCurious response. Are you, perchance, a metals analyst?
Here's the catch. The fact that some bright MBA in Ernst & Young noticed that recent metal price forecasts have been consistently wrong does not give our plucky MBA graduate any insight on how future metal prices will evolve. None whatsoever.
Hmmm. You seem to think predicting prices is akin to rocket science. Demand for commodities will only accelerate as Chindia et al continue to grasp for the good life. At the same time, access to commodities is decreasing. The best deposits/land were found long ago. Average grades have been declining for decades. Is doesn't take a genius to figure out what the long term implications are for demand and prices.
Anyone expecting much from "bright young MBA's" is headed for trouble anyway.
With any half aszed understanding of the difficulties of finding/permitting/financing/constructing mines, every "analyst" should be able to confidently predict where prices are headed. It isn't a reversion to the mean "next year" as almost everyone of the cowardly/lazy "analysts" have been "forecasting" for the last 5 years. But they are getting braver. Now, these brave boys are "forecasting" prices will collapse two years hence.