RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Update Mining - Glory
Miss the trip? Crikey, I was the guy pounding the table in the $ 0.30s and $ 0.40s. Picked up a million of em below $ 0.45 and sold em multiples higher - and none of em below $ 1. As such, TAM was very kind to me and I'll always have a fond memory. That said, when circumstances change, so should your investments. And when things changed for TAM, I got out, and suggested that others do as well.
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As for the 10 bagger comment, I meant it when I said it. I got interested when "Plan A" was to develop R-190 as a stand-alone deposit - the numbers are very good - that deposit is a money maker even at bottom of cycle prices. At the time, Peggy assured everyone she was rounding up financing and that it would be mostly debt-based, so modest dilution - in the 25% range if I remember correctly (not the several hundred percent dilution you can expect today). I presented my calculations and assumptions in great detail for all to see (and to debunk or criticize as they saw fit).
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However, It took a while to realize Peggy was talking out of her ar.se (a pattern that repeated itself so many times that I'm convinced she's delusional, rather than the bald-faced liar that she appears). Turns out that nobody would finance a single deposit with only ~18 month mine life, even in those heady days where almost any deposit that had a 43-101 could find financing. That forced them to switch to "Plan B" and to do confirmational drilling on the deposits near to R-190 for 43-101 purposes to develop a multi-year mine life, the minimum that people seemed willing to finance. That seemed a reasonable Plan B at the time, with Zinc and Pb heading to $ 2 lb with ~7MM tonnes of ~7% combined reserves (but a far cry from R-190's ~16%)
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Sadly, Plan B delayed the project so long that the financing markets began to dry up. And when zinc and lead began to fall, I saw the writing on the wall and got out - suggesting everyone do that as well - when the shares were above $ 1 - and long before the market crashed in late '08 and TAM fell to a few pennies.
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I give due credit to Peggy for saving TAM - that fat royalty keeps her pressing ahead. While she doesn't care if TAM ever makes a dime in profit, or if TAM's beleaguered shareholders ever make any money, she and the Rummy have ten$ of million$ reasons for seeing TAM get into production (so they can cream that fat royalty off the top).
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And no, PP isn't all that promising a deposit unless Zn/Pb are solidly above $ 1 - other than R-190, the mine can't survive bottom of cycle prices - and that's why I sold long ago - and that's why nobody has stepped up to finance it after being flogged all these many years.
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That said, should Zn actually go into deficit as has been predicted so many time in recent years, and prices pop, PP could be a very profitable mine. But I don't see that happening any time soon...
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