new well could DOUBLE prod!it is very possible this new well could DOUBLE current production. As they are doing about 1200 boepd... just on natgas, the new well could flow 7Mmcfd... that would in fact double the boe's per day. will it flow that into sales? unlikely... it would require new production facilities to flow that much... it also might not be good production practice to flow it so large.... and then of course being largely gas, the net back would be lower than oil... so doubling production is not the same as doubling revs.
plus they may have the condensate at maybe 100+ bpd per million cf? then would lower then needed natgas rate to be much lower than 7Mmcfd to double production... maybe a 6 Mmcfd flow would double current production with 100 b's of condy per Mmcfd.
we will know soon enough. BUT what we do know is this is a new field discovery... it could add more development opportunities to the company as well... we know from the little they told us... that is 25% porosity,on a pretty significant intercept, in a new field with no water in the test... the latter is important as I don't buy gas over water, it usually ends badly..
if supplejack adds a few mill and this new well adds a few mill and maybe Cardif flows some gas.... well... we might exit at better than double what we entered this year at.... a massive 100% growth, year over year! this is possible and I suggest, likely, even.
This is looking like an easy double in the next 12 months... even at these low oil prices. you can still make good money in this sector... if you know what the hell you are doing... and by that I mean own TAO!