THNK Long-Term Financial Forecast & Target Share PriceI've put together a forecast based on current analyst models for 2023/2024 and extending them at an appropriate run-rate going forward. What it tells you is that cash is going to be tight this year and yes the company will issue about 12.5M in new shares to satisfy contingent liabilities for the BioPharma acquisition (they are capped at that number so the rest will be in cash). I think this is why the share price has been languishing because the market fears that management will have to raise more capital if an economic recession occurs and hits profitability. Having said that the company's recent contract wins and defensive nature of its government contracts in particular do provide a lot of stability even in the event of a recession. Also based on existing cash and the Scotia bank facility (which has some room for further drawdowns, though not much) the company should just be able to cover its FCF shortfall, but barely.
Net, net if the company can get through this year without having to raise a lot of new capital through share issuance then we should see the share price start to move up quickly assuming they continue at a 15% annual organic revenue growth rate.
| In Thousands of Dollars | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
| Revenue | 91,835.0 | 104,500.0 | 120,175.0 | 138,201.3 | 158,931.4 | 182,771.2 | 210,186.8 | 241,714.9 |
| EBITDA | 6,854.0 | 10,484.0 | 14,976.7 | 20,143.3 | 26,085.0 | 32,917.8 | 40,775.6 | 49,812.1 |
| Capex | 737.0 | 828.0 | 930.2 | 1,045.1 | 1,174.1 | 1,319.1 | 1,482.0 | 1,665.0 |
| Intangibles | 3,548.0 | 3,725.4 | 3,911.7 | 4,107.3 | 4,312.6 | 4,528.2 | 4,754.7 | 4,992.4 |
| Scotia Interest | 2,092.6 | 2,092.6 | 2,092.6 | 2,092.6 | 2,092.6 | 2,092.6 | 2,092.6 | 2,092.6 |
| Beedie Interest | 1,040.0 | 1,040.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Contingent Liab. Paid in Cash | 3,105.3 | 1,463.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| FCF | -3,668.9 | 1,335.0 | 8,042.2 | 12,898.4 | 18,505.6 | 24,977.8 | 32,446.3 | 41,062.1 |
| FD Shares End of Year | 103.0 | 108.0 | 130.3 | 135.3 | 140.3 | 145.3 | 150.3 | 155.3 |
| Target Share Price End of Year | $1.26 | $1.78 | $2.37 | $2.99 | $3.67 | $4.42 | $4.85 | $5.72 |
| EV/ FY12 mths EBITDA | 14.5x | 14.5x | 14.5x | 14.5x | 14.5x | 14.5x | 14.5x | 14.5x |