RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Wow! I also come from a science math oil and mining background. Just like when analyst make their projections based on various assumptions they start to assign probabilities to them. And that's what I've done. I've looked at the budget I've looked at the risks associated with the company which generally are the same as most mining companies except for the jurisdictional risk.
A good comparison for this company is Rupert resources as far as grade and open pit. I don't think anybody can calculate the risk of somebody doing a bad deed in Nigeria. So for me the steady state is a reasonable one that's why the weighting is 70%.
I've had 4 @ 10 times in the past couple of years. So go ahead and make your fun. I've done my research and I've made my bet. I'm working on a minimum two years Horizon to get my double to triple. The other two scenarios play out over seven years… Good luck to all