Zinc favorite (from Barron's)
- March 16, 2017, 3:10 P.M. ET
14 Metals Stock Picks: More From Zinc & Iron Ore
By Dimitra DeFotis
In its second quarter outlook for metals and mining, RBC Capital Markets advises “stay the course” with bullishness on commodity prices as economies globally improve.
A team of RBC analysts conclude: “Commodity price strength could continue into the second quarter driven by improving leading economic indicators and strong seasonality. We believe supply will continue to differentiate performance as it has for zinc and coal…”
Their favorite commodity for this year is zinc, with “the best fundamentals.” However, based on 2017 price forecasts, their preferred commodities encompass zinc, coking coal, iron ore, and copper. Looking ahead five years, they favor nickel, uranium, copper, and zinc. They offered up a host of changes to their 2017 commodity price forecasts, including:
- iron ore price forecast is up by 25% to US$84.50/ton from $67.50.
- alumina price forecast is up 16% to $320/spot
- copper price forecasts increased by 10% to $2.65/pound
- aluminum price forecasts increased by 10% to $0.83/pound
- zinc price forecasts icreased 8% to $1.35/pound
- spot coking coal [metallurgical] price forecast is down 18% to $208.75/ton
They recommend “a market weight position in non-precious metals mining shares,” writing:
Recovery of commodity prices from trough of cycle levels and balance sheet relief led to a significant
increase in mining equity values in 2016. We do not expect a repeat performance in 2017. However, we
believe that improving leading economic indicators and strong seasonality could extend the strength in
commodity and mining share prices beyond the first quarter of 2017.
Here are RBC’s favorite stocks, by category. Some of them have already had nice runs over the past year. We link to the U.S.-traded shares of Canadian and other foreign companies in some cases:
- Australia: Independence Group, Fortescue (FSUGY)
- Global Diversifieds: Anglo American (NGLOY), Glencore (GLNCY), Rio Tinto (RIO), South32 (SOUHY), Teck Resources (TECK)
- North America: Arizona Mining (AZ.Canada), HudBay Minerals (HBM.Canada), Ivanhoe Mines (IVPAF), Labrador Iron Ore Royalty (LIFZF), Lundin Mining (LUN.Canada), Nevsun Resources (NSU)
- PGMs: Platinum Group Metals (PTM.Canada)