Financial analysis... the other side
I look like a risk freak, but I don't define myself as such.
What I buy, when I buy it...
For this stock, like any other stock you have to plug in a value. Youcan used standard financial models. Let's take Asset valuation sincethere is no positive cash flow to analyse.
Asset Value = Cash + Investment + Asset tangible and intangible (tech value).
Cash level was 12M at end of Feb 09. Down to 9 M at end of June.
Investment = 20% stake in Caprion (Caprion generates profit so cashflow valuation is possible). According to my model it's worth something60-70 million. but let's plug zero.
Tech value is Shigabmabs, 4601 and 232. Debatable value. Let's plug zero
Thallion has no debt.
Countless biotech have gone bankrupt. If it happens, they fold the cash back to shareholders. You can check it out yourself.
Let's say timeframe is end of June or July - Strategic Review closes or Interim PII results are out:
So if I buy it today, I am paying 0,18$ for 0,28$ worth of cash (excluding 20% Caprion stake).
A nice buffer of 0,10$ to any risk that might fall on my head.
Risk is reverse from adverse risk o positive risk on worse case scenario : ie going concern / liquidation.
Should liquidation happen, I get stuck with the stock until they foldit and wait for Courts to approved liquidation. Bahh not that bad.
Yeah, I am a risk taker...
Upside is anybody's guess.
Conservative 2$ Bullish 15$. Yeah the range is wide. That's indicative of how positive risk is....
Then you pay 0,18$ per share for two "lottery ticket" for some;
PII results and positive strategic review.
On the other side, you look at SP and market cap and you are scare like sheet.
You don't buy, because no one else is buying no else is endorsing your idea.
For me, I got access to Bloomberg terminal
I know that CI investment is now in with 572000 shares.
I got confirmation that Nat buyer is not a retail player.
For me, I am confortable because I think I got endorser
Can I be wrong. Absolutely. Then, I have plan B; liquidation model.