Post ASCO angst
We enter the post ASCO self doubt period.
After pre ASCO buzz.
If you check Sanofi Aventis Powerpoint presentation on their website and recent AstraZeneca-Merck deal you will find important clues as to Pharmas' acquisiton strategy/intentions.
First, BiParP was gone and Astra Parp product shows similar results. No other major have Parp technology.
Now, Sanofi discontinued 3 PII and 2 PIII compounds in their pipeline, took the money and purchased best of classm, which is Bi Par.
Astra has licensed out HDAC tech, discontinued MEK inhibitor and sign 2 collaborative agreement with a small biotech and Merck; spending nothing and cutting back R&D budget.
Astra is number 3 and has the most serious patent expiry problems and all analysts are cutting targets and suggesting people to buy ROCHE instead. Roche presented 500 cancer posters at ASCO!.
Astra is now forced to buy - best of class compound and dump some of their own Pipepline drug.
Roche could play the joker card and go after the same assets as Astra.
Both company understand very well RAS technology.
GlobeImmune is gone
Concordia is gone
The only one left with RAS technology is Thallion.
4601 could replace all current pipeline drugs similar to it currently dev by big pharma.
4601 is a late stage compound and about to be ready to file for accelerated approval next year.
Also, Sanofi and Astra are persuing a diversification portefilio of pipeline product, while Roche is aiming for concentration of best cash flow products.
232 is a vital strategic compound even more advanced in clinical trial as it is in PIIb (confirmatory trial) and the only Warburg compound being in clinical testing.
4601 is the only RAS mutant effective compound unpartnered.
As for GBM, it is clear that a Avastin + 4601 combo would supplant XL-184 or anything else.
As for Pancreatic cancer, posters and papers publish and presented at ASCO or in Cell magazine show that best combo would 4601 + 232.
A ras inhibitor and a sugar killer eating cancer cell.
Both market are still undeserved and potential mega blockbuster.
I have little doubt that this company will be taken over.
I think Thallion is now stalling for more time as it is very bullish on upcoming GBM results.
Concordia basically validate RAS inhibitions..... for pancreatic cancer and for all other cancer type.
This cat and mouse game is going to last for while.
I am getting impatient....
Analysts have now all the info and will recomment purchase to client.
What they are looking for is :
-Best of class compound
-Advanced clinical stage
-Strategic strategy
-low valuation
-Best combo candidates (which means no known toxicity)
I think both 4601 and 232 fits the portray.
We have now a technically weak stock, I will be purchasing in coming days. This is a good window to buy ( I am by no means telling you or recommending you to buy).
All I am saying is that a fair conclusiion would be "strong fundamental value" very weak technically = buy signal.