Thallion measure some success
The only reason why are stilll here and trial has not been terminated is because Thallion measure some kind of success, sufficient to push it thus far.
How big is the success, we don't know.
3 out 20
4 out 20 or more?
We don't know.
When you modelled all the possible outcomes considering 12 months of testing the odds of failure is actually smaller and smaller as time goes by.
We know that they must have had at least 3 (completed 6 months dosage) out 20 (completed 6 months dosage or not) to move this far.
It looks very good.
Also, patient recruitement is depends on the investigators endorsing or not the drug. Doctors do recommend trial drugs to patients. If we got this far it means that a good portion of the physicians have been recommending test patients.
The only reason why they would recommend it is because they know first hand that it works.
Stock Price when down in August because it was the timeframe close to 16 weeks for most the patients, market was fearing early failure.
We passed that mark and are now confident that Thallion saw 4 months results and was pleased to continue.
We get conference call in 2 weeks and possibly new guidance.
Duke University endorsement
and expansion of trial to anemic patient and to low creatine level (lower brain function)
are other external positive indicator.
Put it all together we know that some kind of optimism was present, that's why Thallion is taking so long.