Question = Answer
This summer "Strategic Review" was closed.
Thallion decided, opted, choosed to convert tax losses to gain 8,85Millions. Not bad considering the horrible market condition. Compare this to Onc latest financing which got them 14 millions for a PIII candidate.
Now, during the summer Management was already aware of test result.
Why the heck did they turned down the take over offer???
Why???
Looks like Management was ready to gamble.
Since then we got another scientific poster indicating Apoptosis propreties for 4601.
Since then we got a new testing center Duke University (not planned to participated in trial)
Since then we finally finish recruiting the first cohort of patients.
20 is the minimum for statistical significance.
With 20 patients, you can move your valuation to 130Million - market cap. 4.06$ per share.
Just those results can propel 3,0Million market cap to 130Millions.
That's the biotech risk/reward potential.
20% stake in Caprion is not worth 3Million
In 2007, Caprion was sold 80% to Venture fund. Venture was Great West Partners, if I recall correctly. Venture fund agreed to mop up 30M in debt for 80% stake.
So valuation in 2007 for Caprion was close to 37,5.
Since then, Covance took interest in the business.
What is Caprion price tag?
Something north of 37,5Million
20% of 37,5 million = 7,5
Add cash of what ever is still in Thallion, you get close to 0,40 to 0,50$
I see reward in liquidation and trial failure
I see great reward in positive trial.
Bolder isn't bold at all
Bolder is just take a position where a position is irresistable.
Patience folks we are getting ever closer to Validation.
Remember, statistically it biotech companies do better in PII trial than in PIII trials.
The success rate for PII drug is higher, much higher.
The odds are stack in our favor.