RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Disappointing news todayPandora ... Good point.
Only 15M TSO would bring a lack of liquidity for big boys (funds, etc ...) to enter in it.
We're about 4 months away to NMIBC Ph. 2b 3-month interim data that would logically spike the share price. And with the upcoming paper in 2 days at the CUA conference in Quebec City, where you see that they're already touting "
conservative" 65-70% CR, I don't think we will need a R/S at this point.
Presentation to 74th Annual Canadian Urological Association Meeting on June 30 Quebec, QC, June 29 - July 1, 2019 Required one-year effectiveness for novel therapies in Bacillus Calmette-Gurin-unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder cancer: A decision analysis Sunday June 30, 2019 from 07:30 to 09:00 Presenter
Marian S Wettstein, Canada
Research Fellow
Surgical Oncology
Princess Margaret Cancer Center - University Health Network
Marian S. Wettstein1, David Naimark2, Michael A. Jewett1, Lothar Lilge3, Girish S. Kulkarni1.
1Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 3Department of Medical Biophysics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
Abstract
Introduction:
Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) unresponsive to intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Gurin (BCG) immunotherapy is a clinical dilemma. Early radical cystectomy (ERC) provides superior oncological control but leads to a decreased postoperative quality of life (QoL) and comes at the mortality and morbidity of the procedure. On the other hand, novel therapies (NT) that aim to preserve the bladder and the associated QoL are inferior regarding cancer control. The aim of the current investigation was to find by a decision-analytic approach the required one-year effectiveness for NT at which the quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) is comparable to ERC.
Methods:
We developed a seven-state Markov microsimulation model (cycle length: three months; discount rate: 3%) as illustrated in Fig. 1 and simulated the two strategies "NT" and "ERC" with a cohort of 10 000 patients. Each sampled individual was modeled by distinct age, sex, and tumour characteristics (T stage, grade, concomitant carcinoma in situ). We defined the required one-year effectiveness for NT as the threshold value where the two strategies yield an equal amount of QALE. Transition probabilities and utilities were obtained through literature review and expert consensus. Before analysis, the model was validated and calibrated to a cohort that underwent ERC and was followed for over 15 years.
Results:
After calibration, our model produced a 10-year BC-specific survival of 80%, which we considered as valid in relation to contemporary series. The reference treatment strategy "ERC" yielded on average 10.1 quality-adjusted life years (Monte-Carlo standard error 0.06). We then varied the one-year effectiveness parameter in small increments across a range from 0–100% and found a comparable amount of QALE in the interval between 65% and 70%.
Conclusions: Our study could demonstrate that potential NT for BCG-unresponsive NMIBC can compete with ERC at one-year effectiveness between 65% and 70%. As soon as NT reach clinical maturity, their clinical utility has to be evaluated from a cost-effectiveness perspective.
image: https://2019.cua.events/files/abstract/figures/193/BCG.jpg
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Pandora - (6/25/2019 1:26:21 PM) RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Disappointing news today tomchoco wrote:Your chance to make a big score will sail right out of the window if a r/s happens. In fact you will probably lose money in the long run.
I can't imagine them doing a 1 for 10 when there are only 146M o/s -
that would knock it down to 14.6M o/s. Better to wait till the price is stable above $1 and do a 1 for 5 although I completely detest RS.