ASCO GU and AUAThose of us who have been here a medium term or longer are very used to the game that happens with TLT.
Usual cycle
1. New data anticipated from a quarterly update.
2. Price builds.
3. New data released. Looks reasonable/good but presented in confusing way. Long holders stay put. Small group of others sell out of confusion or to create a swing down (again). Swing down works because most long holders have bought as much as need or can. So limited buyers to take advantage of swing down.
4. Price falls.
5. Repeat above 1-4.
Variations happen based on random things but that is most common pattern.
As such many can wonder if this will repeat with the upcoming data releases from ASCO and then the end Feb quarterly update.
It may happen.
However, there are a few differences this time.
- clinical data presented by main investigator/research vs TLT doing some confusing table or graph
- as such, more detail and likely more clear.
- when presenting at big meetings like ASCO and AUA there will be a lot of new viewers to hear about technology. Some will look up info on company and invest, even if small purchases. Urologists are very wealthy (in Canada, among the higher paid specialties) so they may invest some. There are no rules agains urologists investing in companies in their area.
- new buyers mean that a bit more balance between buyers and sellers when considering the steps 1-4 above.
So overall, there is reason to expect the next month to be different.
Or not. :)