RE:RE:RE:Financial AdvisorBenedictus wrote: GrahamB wrote: Camphikefish wrote: While we wait. I had a brief conference with my investment advisor today and he questioned why I'd be invested in a biotech penny stock for over 10 years when my money could've tripled in the overall market. Of course I mentioned our unique science, efficacy, patient population, BTD, and the whole 9 yards as we say in the states. He briefly made me feel as if I must be financially immature, poorly informed, and misguided. There is no overall point here I'm mostly just sharing the empty pit I felt in my stomach for a minute. I wonder if any of you have felt the same? I told him we'd see who has the last laugh. Hopefully I've not been living in fantasyland for over a decade! I still believe we get to at least $5-10 eventually. Getting older! Let's go 1433 and take us to the finish line!
Financial advisors tend to be a conservative lot, and because penny stocks have significant risks
as they are story stocks. Sure, they could double, go 10x or more. The problem is they usually dont and are considered highly speculative, volatile, less liquid and the companies are usually unproven companies, and may have less rigorous reporting standards.
FWIW I did do a quick dive on this before and passed, and continue to follow.
If you look specifically at the financials for Theralase:
From the MRQ Financials: Total current assets 1,705,119 vs Total current liabilities 978,674
Sales of 218,926 With losses of (1,155,234) and negative 6 month cash flows (2,564,187)
Also, The company says under the going concern statement: “the Company’s existing product line have not met expectations and have not been sufficient inand of themselves to enable the Company to fund all its continuing development and commercialization efforts accordingly the Company will require additional capital to continue to research and develop its drug technology and market its device products as it continues to develop sales opportunities” so its dependent on finacings and dilution.
Source:
https://theralase.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Q223-Financial-Statements-Final.pdf So if you put this together, Not sure about what the advisors specific comments were, your situtation, nor on the return quoted, but suppose directionally, the opportunity cost at this point certainly favors the advisor.
The story here with is interesting, but the risks are high re liquidity issues, increasing competition, and ongoing dilution.
But hey to each his, her, their own.
This one is not for me,but do your own due diligence and while its interesting to hear what others say-I wouldn’t trust what any poster says for my investment decision, especially me! Ha ha
While I agree the financials are an ongoing concern and we will very likely need funds from either an additional share issuance or, dare we hope, a regional partner announcement, I disagree with your comment that "
directionally, the opportunity cost at this point certainly favors the advisor". At this advanced stage, I would argue this is an asymmetric opportunity for a better treatment protocol to advance toward commercialization. This is a pivotal trial. BTD submission is imminent (NLT Q4). The CR data gathered so far is, by comparison, much better than the current treatment options for patients.
But I agree wholeheartedly with your last point. We are all just posting our thoughts and opinions and each investor must be comfortable with their investments. I have been invested in Theralase for either 6 or 7 years and have what most here would likely deem a modest position but it's plenty enough if this technology is commercialized and the pipeline is advanced.
All good points. And I hear you. Looking forward, you may see catalysts, and positive price action, which can affect how you consider the future, but from my understanding the investment advisor was talking about the past 10 years return compared to being into TLT.
My comment was that he was directionally right. By this I mean I wasn’t there, and I don’t know which index he was referring to,nor the starting time but if you look at the different major indexes, they were all positive.
Strictly speaking more from a mathematical point of view, if you look at the Different indexes, and depending on which index you look at, the returns have generally been positive, whereas for TLT, it has been at best flat.
To be precise,
The S&P 500 average return over the past decade has come in at around 12.39%, whereas .The tsx 4.4%
The Nasdaq 100 is up an average annual return of about 18%
It was around 3700 in September 2013September 21, 2023 is 13,223.98
My choice of the word, directionally, was deliberate, depending on, where are you start and when the conversation happened, the results can be slightly different for the different indexes, or markedly for TLT
The reason for this comes back to my comment on volatility. Volatility has not favoured TLT,
Looking at the long-term chart, the price in September 2013, depending on where you place your starting point it’s basically the same as where we are 10 years later. Interestingly, this is pretty well at the low point, and if you had chosen a few years before, or after price, could’ve been as high as a dollar., So there could be folks on here that bought in some of these peaks within the last 10 years, and are actually down for a bit .
Taken together, as I noted, using historical data and math (whether you use the compound, interest formula a=p(1+r)n or adjust for compounding based on time period) the, advisor, mathematically, is directionally, correct at this point, based on the last 10 years. To be precise requires more data.
Now to your point, looking forward, who knows. Then again, after waiting 10 years, you could be in for a win finally, or it could be the Monte Carlo fallacy.
Either way, good luck to you. I’ll pop in every now and then and see how it’s going. I hope your patience is rewarded, for you and the Longs as well as the patients.