Theralase Technologies Inc. V.TLT

Pfizer or Roche as jv partners for the NMIBC

[ScienceFirst]

After failures, Roche and Pfizer have a 2nd chance to put their feet back into the bladder cancer indication.  Too much money to make, I doubt they will pass this opportunity to oust and displace Merck in this lucrative indication, by inflicting Merck a 3-fold defeat;  the end of the nureliable BCG, the end of construction of the new BCG plant, the end of Keytruda in this indication.  

Advancing TLD1433 in early stage would also displace BCG, a market worth 17B$US.  Not to mention MIBC too.

Merck would only have an incentive to stall TLD1433 market penetration and keep BCG alive and keep manufacturing it.

[jewel9m]

Merck has the most to lose. Not only in sales but also in the return on investment of the new facility.  If Merck feels TLD1433 may cause them harm, they have a few options. 1) Manipulate TLT stock to cuase it to fail, (enabling brokers to short) 2) Lobby the FDA to stall and bury TLD1433 BTD and AA 3) Cause disruptions with TLD1433 production 4) Buyout TLT or Partner for the rights to

[skys1]

Right on jewel9, I have felt the exact same way for some time. They have so much to loose, the very powerful Merck won't take this sitting down. Will they choose to fight, join or buy their adversary. Will be very interesting.

[BlueFranky]

It's an easy decision? That Mark would have the most to gain by taking us out before anyone else does?

[Legit62]

Correct thety have a ton tied up in BCG, will be interesting

[Camphikefish]

You nailed it Jewel9. Now if someone who knows way more than most of us can weigh in on the probability/possibility of each scenario you listed. I hope SF will address this. Not because I'm too lazy because honestly I would not know how to begin. If it pertained to the orthopedic trauma implant business I could break it down nicely! 

[Eoganacht]

If we look at the 3 companies, Pfizer is biggest, with 2022 pharmaceutical revenues of almost $80 billion USD, Roche made $48.5 and Merck just shy of $43. The success of TLD1433 pdt would not be in Mercks' interest unless they owned the treatment outright and were thus able to mitigate losses from the (hypothetical) discontinuation of the use of Keytruda and possibly BCG. But it certainly

[thadeush]

I know nothing, but it seems pretty clear that TLD1433 is MILES ahead of BCG as a more effective and more convenient treatment so whoever buys it WILL knock BCG out. All of them have the money, but Merck has the most to lose and so may be the most motivated. I bet Merck will make a big play to get TLD1433, if only to save its own azz. 

[CancerSlayer]

  Merck certainly has the most to lose & a lot to gain.  From Merck's standpoint , BCG as a stand-alone treatment for higher-risk NMIBC was never a big profit-maker (due to manufacturing costs/logistical reasons).  However, the treatment landscape has been rapidly changing in the past year.  Looking at recently approved entrants Keytruda (19% durable response) &

[gossamer18]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Legit62]

CanerSlayer, thats why this makes perfect sense for Pfizer or Roche to JV with us ASAP to keep Merck away, this would allow us to get heavily into our second and third indications with money on hand and then get the big buyout, this move may move us up to the nasdaq once we qualify for that with better and sustained share price, i still believe we will have BTD and AA in hand probably in month or

[ScienceFirst]

Clearly, Pfizer or Roche would need no motivation to go after Merck's 17B$ BCG market shares. Merck, because they are already engaged in the building of a BCG manufacturing plant to open in 2026, would be in no hurry to push our sales. So TLT wouldn't maximize its royalties from sales.  It's sad as 100% of urologists in the world are know to Merck, because they all order from

[patience69]

One thing that I think we can all agree on. If I were any of those potentially interested companies the time to strike would be now! Maybe conditional on BTD or even with their help AA but I wouldn't sit back & wait until my competitor beats me to it

[ScienceFirst]

Patience69 ... Negociations take time.  You have to reach to all big pharmas, then wait for their reply, analyze them, then back and forth, narrow down to few, then legal, etc ...  I've shown some examples that took 1-1.5y so TLT has a good timeline.  In the meantime, our valuation will keep evolving with data.  ASCO is the first of many official exposures to come, now that

[O12009]

In a complete buyout, Merck has much more incentive. They could start by moving on many new indications to keep them as the lead in cancer treatment. At the same time they could slowly promote the use of TLD 1433 so there would no longer be a need for the new plant to produce more BCG . That plant could be use to make the vaccine to rid the world of Covid. This would be a major boost to a market

[Longholder99]

I think BTD and AA are secondary to the date RDW returns to the CEO role in terms of a catalyst and THAT NR.  Just my opinion.  

[ScienceFirst]

There won't be a buyout at this point. TLT will want to maximize our value by demonstrating what it can deliver, when compared to competition. TLT's goal is to jv first in NMIBC to demonstrate the value of PDT/PDC and bring it to bedside.  A jv will finally bring us cognition via a fairness in market valuation. Then, with Ph. 1b in GBM and NSCLC, TLT will demonstrate that PDT/PDC

[plantrader]

@SF, Do you have a ballpark guestimate for when "Ph. 1b in GBM and NSCLC" might occur? Isn't that an early to mid 2024 timeframe?