RE: Pat McKeoughI really like the Doris potential. I have my own internal reserve estimates on back of the envelope calculations, based on a few reservoir assumptions, and its upside is very high. I don’t want to say how high b/c then people harass you later.
But it’s potentially a multi-multi-bagger if future Doris appraisal wells prove up anything near or better than what the discovery well did in terms of net payzone, reservoir characteristics and oil saturation factors. That’s actually much more important than the flow rates, even though almost everyone only looks at flow rate results and thinks that a good barometer for how much recoverable oil there is, when its not the best indicator at all.
Of course this is a big “IF”, but that is what investing is all about. Its about taking a calculated gamble, with odds in your favour. It doesn’t always work out but the discovery well in this case greatly derisked the play and future wells on Doris.
And Doris South is a 30 square km look-alike to Doris so there is even more potential.
The gas assets are a waste of time IMHO. They add to the overall CF of Tethys, but the netbacks are too low to use up a lot of your resources in developing them.
B/c of Doris I would definitely buy Tethys. A $325 mm market cap for something that could hold multiples more of value than that on a derisked asset is always attractive.
For the record I don’t own any Tethys, but I am looking to take a position soon. I always knew of this company, but I finally did my DD on it last night and I was impressed with the potential upside.