RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Interestin "Don't agree with you that this is seasonally weak period for Oil. Oil and Oil stocks are at a high point in seasonality. Seasonality, is positive with oil prices until April."
Seasonally oil demand lowers after the winter and again after the summer months. It's the middle of March, winter is behind us.
"Iran tensions, Syria's lower out put, Arab spring(s) move the spread up Between Brent and WTI. With Brent being the more pricey because of it. Therefore, the point I wished to make is Brent is what matters to TPL, and is what investors in TPL ought to be watching. This is also why I am ever more Bullish on TPL."
Syria has nothing to do with it. Their output is around 400,000 bod and their an oil importer. The non OPEC nations that matter are Russia, Norway, Mexico, Canada, Angola and Brazil. Iraq as well. They are in OPEC but do not have oil production quotas on them like the rest of the OPEC nations do so they can increase oil production as much as they want without having to answer to OPEC.
The spread increase between Brent and WTI is more to do with the oil inventories in the UK vs what they are in the US. US inventories are rising due to lower demand than in the past vs increasing oil production (mostly from unconventional plays like oil shale and the US Bakken). UK oil production has been falling for years as the large oil fields in the North Sea have been depleting over the last 40 years without many new large fields found to offset that production.
The Iran tensions have increased WTI and Brent at about the same rate since it started. The $15-20 spread between WTI and Brent was already there at the end of 2011, prior to Iran talking about sinking oil tankers in the Strait of Harmuz in early 2012.
As for TPL being linked to Brent pricing, I already stated that in my last post.