RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Darcy "Both you and I know that is pocket money with the prices they receive today."
The gas is useless, until the new Chinese pipeline comes in.
But the Tajik oil is not. $60 oil with no royalties and no taxes. So say $50 netback.
They are looking to drill 2 wells at Beshtentak in 2012. Looking for 500+ bod wells ontop of current production. Assuming only 1,000 bod net to TPL that's another $18.25 mm in annual CF on a low risk play.
"IF they are able to put EOL9 and/or Persea on production, then we’re in a completely different situation. Again, promises promises, they announced that EOL9 had a kick and produced oil to the surface in May last year, here we are 10 months later and we still haven’t gotten a decent flow test…"
What do you want them to do? Test it without the proper equipment? If you can't test it, you can't test it. EOL9 is in Tajikistan, not N. America. There is next to no oil industry there and its practically a desert. There is not the huge supply of oil services companies that there is in N. America or Europe. So importing that equipment takes time. A lot of time.
First you have to find a company willing to provide the services, then you have to wait for that equipment to come off of its current contract on its current project in another country, then you have to wait until it gets shipped, passes customs, gets delivered and then test to make sure it works before using it. You don't have to deal with these issues in say W. Canada or the southern US. But you do in a dessert with practically no oil services companies to go to.
It will always take longer to get things done in this part of the world, it doesn't matter who is running the ship.
If a current contract remaining on testing equipment is say 5 months. Then you got to wait 5 months min before that services company can begin to ship it to Tajikistan. Add in another 2+ months for customs clearance, logistics, reassembly, testing if it works before using it. Its 7+ months before anything gets done.
"Dyna being a more proximal and shallower target than Doris is very interesting, and could potentially be something much bigger than Doris. What is your take on pay thickness there, my guess is that it could be thicker since you are closer to the source of the sediments."
I agree with your take on what the thickness there could be. At least I would expect an oil saturation factor higher in Dyna than in Doris used to calculate potential reserves due to its closer proximity to the oil migration source. Doris is only about 9m net thick in each of the upper and lower Cretaceous zones. So it's not like 18m net total is a huge thickness to beat.
"I think any farm-in is at least 6 months, if not more away. It didn’t sound like they had come very far in that process judging from the CC. I’m also not sure if they will only farm out the deeper bigger stuff below the salt, or also go for a partner on the shallow levels. Repayment of past costs plus carry for 1 or 2 wells is my guess that they can achieve, most likely with a Chinese company. Definitely very interesting when that heats up."
Who knows how far it is away. Anyone's guess is just as good as the next guy's. Past articles on the issue state that TPL wants in the order of $90 mm upfront for about a 40% stake in the asset, with more %WI for drilling costs on future wells. Will they get it? Who knows. But that is what the starting point of any negotiation will probably start with.