RE: RE: RE: Tethys Petroleum's Robson on Central A "They get ~$30 bbl wellhead price."
TPL gets $30/bo wellhead for oil shipped through the Emba facility. They still have a contractual obligation to send some oil through that terminal until June 2012. When that contract ends, they can send it all through the new Aral terminal where they get $40/bo wellhead.
Also the oil pricing in Central Asia doesn't swing the way it does in NY and London, its much more stable. So the daily changes to WTI and Brent oil pricing doesn't get affected there at anywhere the same rate as what stupidity you see on a daily basis on the trading floors elsewhere in the world, where oil prices can swing 10% in 2 days like it did 2 weeks ago on absolutely nothing.
A third thing looking forward is that they are getting this pricing based on a pilot project contract that forces them to sell domestically that limits their revenue and CF/bo produced. In Q1-2013 or earlier, according to management (so take it with a grain of salt as there could be delays), it is expected that TPL will get their PS contract that will allow them to export their oil for Brent pricing minus 10%. Even with the added taxes levied on exported production, CF and netbacks are to increase by roughly another 20% ontop of what they would had the production still be sold domestically.
"Opex is ~$14 bbl per Q1 numbers, so netbacks are ~$16 bbl"
Means nothing.
Q1 oil quantities from Doris averaged 1,038 bod. Oil volumes are now 5,000 bod from Doris. The more volume you push through the same infrastructure the more you drop the opex costs.
The oil volume variable changed over that time and so will the opex costs as a result and that will also change the netback picture as well.
The issue today with this company is the environment in which it trades in. Its all risk off at the moment as the market is coming up with about the 50th reason why it should sell off once again in the last 12 months. The risk-on risk-off trades seem to flip flop every week. And it just doesn't make anything move, regardless of what any company does, even if its good.