RE: RE: Halyk Finance Hey WeKnow,
I have been following TPL and have been in an out for what seems like 3 years know. I was around well before it was trading over $2.00. There are several other posters who are well beyond me in terms of technical knowledge and interpreting well results in the energy industry, TO1, Darcy, oilandgas (aka JTCod), MustangMatt, for example. However, it is my opnion that:
-Tethys frustrated investors for such a long time with delays and late testing results that many lost interest. Just like now, we have four wells sitting for such a long period of time without testing
-investors have had enough of hearing about potential - they want wells to be tested on time, significant cash flow so there is no further dilution and for goodness sakes an increase in booked reserves.
-Investors and analysts have historically discussed execution risk with Tethys
-the last increase in P1 and P2 reserves was not substantial in my opinion and it underwhelmed the market
-The London listing has been positive . You can now see a a lot of excitement with knowledgable investors on the London forums - check ADVFN out. This board is very active. Because of their proxiity to central asia and their knowledge of that area, , they appear less concerned about the political risks.
- I think we had turned the corner actually with the release of the Taj. resource report and the increase in the share p[rice but whoever the seller is has swamped our boat. Liquidity for this play is still an issue and the excitment and interest in TPL was no match for the seller dumping shares like that. My guess is the seller already wanted out and took advantage of the good news and liquidity to get out. I doubt it had anything to do with TPL.
- For a guy like me, I won't even buy more right now even though the price is great because I am already at my limit of what any (almost) sane investor would allocate to this play. I won't tell you how much because it is too much. I suspect there are a lot of investor's like me though who already have their fill.
-Europe is still in my opinion an anchor on this share. It is a concern as to what oil prices will do. If we can ever get to risk-on, it will be exciting.
- The S/P is a steel right now. Yes, if AKD07 hits either on the appraisal or on the exploration target, it is difficult not to see TPL take off Even if we can get to 10000 bopd, there will be a boost. In my opinion TPL investors who have been around long enough need to actually see the pudding, not be told how good it will taste
-I do not expect bad news. I have not seen much of any correlation to the movement of the general market with TPL. I think the shares are tightly held generally and low volume can swing the SP wildly.
Anyway, I do expect great things still, just being patient. I think one day, it will all come together - could be very soon actually. I also believe a farm-in partner will really push this along.
Good luck.
-There is a disconect between what is going on