RE: RE: RE: Q2 figures / i need your help They can sell oil to Emba at around $30/bo. That manatory contract expired near the end of Q2. Now all oil can be processed at their new Oil Terminal at around $40/bo as there are no more contractual obligations to sell directly to Emba. Its not a just a domestic oil sell thing. Its also a past contract obligation that helped to limit rev and cf/bo, which today no longer exists.
The export licence would allow for Brent-10% pricing, but would jack up the taxes to drive overall Cf/bo to around 20% more than what it is when sold domestically.
You're talking about past performance but don't look at the changing variables that are going to effect future earnings reports such as what was already stated above and the fact that their current Doris oil production is 37% higher than what it averaged in Q2. Looking back at past performance is great if you have an asset that is not expanding, which is not the case with TPL.
Could there be issues and delays moving forward? No one hopes for it, but it is expected when operating in this part of the world. With that being said, they are still cash flowing more today than they where during the average day during Q2. And as they get closer to finishing building out their infrastructure expansions and winterizing of the new oil terminal that will free up a lot of cash for other things like drilling. The more $ that is used in one quarter for constructing it the less $ is needed in the future.
So your headed towards the end of the year with increasing production and decreasing infrustructure costs which will both impact the bottom line. An then sometime between now and the end of Q1 2013 (management's expectation) you get your oil export licence ontop of all that.
" the overhead and depreciation of having its own drill rigs becomes too expensive if one is only drilling a couple of wells."
It really isn't if they lease out their equipment when they don't expect to use them.
"Until they can sell to the export market nad they are producing 15 to 20K do not wxpect much from the share price."
15-20K and selling into the international market? Get real.
I guess your only going to be happy when/if they CF over $1, before you want to buy.