Post by
hikari on Jul 18, 2020 5:26am
Some thoughts
Neutral: Ok, the first not so good production test with few hundred bbl/d was done in the deeper Jura. No attractive test production rate but perhaps some upside.
+The second production test with the 2.700 bbl/d was done in the shallower Apt.
+My impression is , Mr. Wells is still trying to keep this company alive. But this loan with almost 20% interest rate for Tpl ... something like this can kill a company like Tpl. I give him just a dodgy + for this point? I hope he does not give up and finaly succeeds as and for the Tpl shareholders.
On the other hand
- this oil is stranded
- selling the oil at the wellhead: they will get just 50% of the oilprice as in the past for the Doris oil?
- since last year no more production from the Doris oil field
- declining gas production. Hope they learned the lessons from the not so successful gas wells drilled in the past
- the company is still highly indebted(!) = risk as written in their M&A
- somehow this company got talent to end up infront of a judge when they start to work together with partners. See Olisol
- the deceased Dr. Robson got perhaps gut feeling for possible reservoirs but Tpl is still somehow an intransparent company for me. I am not sure if I would have bought a used car from Dr. Robson for example? My impression is that Tpl has lost resources and time of one decade because they were fighting against (shady???)ex-partners. In my opinion they have to grow that they get a critical mass that it is not so easy anymore to bully Tpl. At least for shady local partners. In the case Tpl can increase production substantially, the real sharks will start to circle Tpl. I liked the idea from the past to drill the ultra deep gas lead with Total.
I expect, see a chance the share price will go down after the well test hype and then we will see...