RE:I’m convinced Don’t agree it is all fake. You just have to look around, see new construction, civil engineering, new cars, new electronics, planes in the air, the military spending like there is no limit. Those are all real, tangible evidence of an economy that is in transition but still grinding along.
As for miners and metals prices there is a massive vested interest in manufacturers, fabricators, and end use consumers in keeping prices low so all the things they want to consume are as inexpensive as possible. Underdeveloped countries desperate for foreign exchange have provided low pricing leverage. So too have modified reduction of inputs by more thrifty engineering, and recycling. Not much different from oil and gas - conserve, reuse, recycle, lean on politically weak countries to set low prices for massive supply. It’s a global tug of war.
I think the thesis that the last two decades have seen underinvestment in exploration and development of new supply, and replenishment of higher grade reserves, is correct. There is supply constraint, and the world population and consumption demands, including the fundamental rollover-replacement of older fossil fuel energy uses with new cleaner renewable energy solutions, continues to grow.
Fundamental economics suggests base and previous metals prices should rise. But those are longer term trends and it can take years of discontinuity, resistance by government and major consumer bloc interventions and manipulations for the basic supply-demand equation to assert itself.
Crypto is a wrench in the works for gold as the store of safe financial value. Personally I believe it will be shown to be faulty and less desiresble, the old savage relic will reassert itself because of the non-transactional, silent and secret ability to store it. We’ll see.
In the meantime, it’s all about patience and timing. Short term trading in public markets is polluted by manipulation and distortion. So it is a very hard game to win trading against full time, well-capitalized professionals. And timing is ... well, like Keynes said, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” So don’t overextend and expect that sometimes we can be right but face a long wait for it to be proven out.
Have a sound thesis based on fundamental trends and economics. Don’t run counter to the likely paths of central banks and major political powers. Establish positions in discounted assets and be patient until you receive fair valuation, or the scenario changes to the point where it s prudent to close out, win or lose. Diversify. Above all be patient and study as many opinions and data as possible to try and gain a clear picture of what in the Sam Hill is going on in this crazy, complicated world. Don’t doubt your soundly formulated convictions.