My deductive reasoning, why I think Ucore will go to 75.Welcome to the flat gray rainy Pacific NW,
What I have to look forward to for the next six to twelve weeks. As part of my New Years resolution, I upgraded the internet at the house. After fighting with Comcast for the past year, I can finally give them the heave ho. Went with Verizon's 5G internet. At twenty five bucks a month for ten years with 300 MB download speeds vs 30 to 40 MB for Comcast. No contest.
Deductive reasoning: I have always loved detective stories, Made a game of deductive reasoning for the kids. It started one Saturday in late Augest. I was working swing shift and got to bed at 2 and was up at 9ish. I was on the back porch with a cup of Folgers and a cat on the lap. Wife comes and leaves a carafe of coffee. She is going school clothes shopping with two other mothers from the neighborhood.
A short time later all three women come back looking at me like I was the cause of all there troubles. It seem that the gang of eight teenagers and younger had collectively decide that they did not want to be dragged from store to store to have their mother choose their clothes from the cheapest bargain racks. Imagine that. So I was task with taking the gang shopping.
We drove to the mall and walked into the food court. I sat down outside the Spudnut shop and set out the rules. They go in pairs. They tell me which store they are going to and coming back. They each had a list of what was to be bought. When they found what they wanted I would pay for it. It force them to shop wisely and keep a budget. Anyway for the ones that finished early we play a game of deductive reasoning with people and places. They got very good which force me too also.
Yes, Pip it is a story deal with it.
My deductive reasoning on Ucore: What is Ucore trying to do? They are trying to do just REE separation. You look at China, MP and Lynas all of them are doing separation as a means to an end for there mining. Meaning the separation has to be cheap enough to cover the cost of the mining for them to make a profit. Ucore is trying to move to the next step, just separation without the cost of mining. One would think that just doing separation would pay more and create more profit for the share holders. That is my big picture thinking on Ucore.
Lets look at the past year and see what we can figure out. In the fall of 2021 Ucore is talking about a 3.5 million dollar loan from AIDEA. Next thing we hear is that indepenent testing to happen at pilot scale level. One would think that as Pip, has said somebody at AIDEA wanted to be sure that RSX worked as advertised. Next we hear is that independent testing went great but was six weeks late and no results were release. Why? Here the story changed. It took me a bit to catch on. Okay, you are Ucore. You got great test results. Who are you going to show it to? The Ucore board? One would think. Would you show it to the miners that would be suppling the feed stock for the SMC? A good possibility. The OEM automotive companies? Also a good possibility. Then a big change, the DEMO plant is to be upgraded from a eight slice plant that does just four high paying REEs. To a fifty one slice plant that does all of the REEs and the battery metals also. Okay why the change? Was Ucore offered money or a contract for that upgrade? That is the only thing I think makes sense. From whom? My bet is one or more of the OEMs. Did Ucore bite off more than they could do with the money that they had. In a word yes. The loan from RJ and the PP shows that. In the last PR they said that the money would let them finish commissioning the DEMO plant. In other word they did not commission the DEMO plant the week of the 19th because they ran out of money do it. Kind of like running out of gas just short of the finish line.
Do I think Ucore will finish the DEMO plant this quarter. Last of this quarter or first of next.
After that come testing of ore or concertrate. In a side by side comparison with SX.
Contracts after that. With contracts come a price jump in the stock price. Using Pip numbers, which I think is low. 1 to 3 dollars for a share price.
When do I think we will get to 75? It will come in two spikes on the chart. The first two month that Ucore is on a US exchange. That one I think will be a hype trade by speculators. The next will be on contract news with major US companies or big money from USG.
Have to go, got a birthday party to go to.
Dragon