Fed funds terminal rate These are the latest projections for where interest rates are heading. It is based on the Fed Funds futures market which has important implications for just about everything.
The following would indicate the most likely outcome for the indicated months below:
March : 4.75- 5% with 59% probability
May: 5-5.25% with 58.7% probability
June: 5.25-5.5% with 49.3% probability
july: 5.25-5.5% with 48.6% probability
Sept : 5.25-5.5% with 43.9% probability
Nov: 5-5.25% with 37.3% probability
Dec: 5: 5.25% with 35.2% probability
The most likely event is that Fed Funds will peak in the targeted range of 5.25-5.5% range by June.
Rates drop in the range of 4.75-5% in January 2024. Then by March, they drop to 4.5-4.75%.
Finally, it is interesting to note that the market is anticipating rates to be between 3.75-4% even by December of 2024!
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html